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San Antonio City SC

ECNL Boys · Texas BU13 · 20 teams · San Antonio City SC (all teams)

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17th
1-1-4 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-17 goal diff · 3–20
WDLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 17.3
+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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San Antonio City SC
17th · 0.67 PPG
vs
Albion Hurricanes FC
8th · 1.71 PPG

Specht Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.0 against · 0.49 expected points)

Season so farSan Antonio City SCAlbion Hurricanes FC
Position17th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-44-0-3
Points per game0.671.71
Goals for / game0.52.6
Goals against / game3.32.1
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L L D WL L W W W
Biggest win1–0 at FC Westlake4–1 at SOLAR SC
Worst loss0–7 at OK Energy FC Academy3–4 at Solar SC Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.75+0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.11-0.15

Common opponents: RISE SC — we 0–0; they 3–2. SAFC — we 1–3; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 at HTX, 0–0 vs RISE SC, 0–7 at OK Energy FC Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    SAFC sit 16th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above SAFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Albion Hurricanes FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Antonio City SC – Albion Hurricanes FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.57 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 18th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
13th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 4 15th▲ up 2
Draw
0.71 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 18th▼ down 1
Loss
0.57 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 18th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
17.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 11%
  17. 17th 21%
  18. 18th 40%
  19. 19th 13%
  20. 20th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.26 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 2.75 (+2.08) 1st (2.61) 49 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Texans Academy 2.71 (+2.04) 3rd (2.36) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 HTX 2.43 (+1.76) 2nd (2.45) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Colorado Storm 2.33 (+1.66) 5th (2.10) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 OK Energy FC Academy 2.17 (+1.50) 4th (2.32) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 RISE SC 1.86 (+1.19) 8th (1.57) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Lonestar ATX Red 1.78 (+1.11) 6th (1.95) 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
8 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.71 (+1.04) 9th (1.56) 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 Solar SC Academy 1.57 (+0.90) 7th (1.71) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
10 Dallas Texans 1.43 (+0.76) 11th (1.31) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 Sting 1.40 (+0.73) 10th (1.56) 23 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
12 DKSC 1.30 (+0.63) 12th (1.29) 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
13 Tulsa SC 1.00 (+0.33) 14th (0.94) Win next game
14 Lonestar ATX Royal 0.89 (+0.22) 16th (0.88) A point next game
15 SOLAR SC 0.86 (+0.19) 13th (0.94) A point next game
16 SAFC 0.80 (+0.13) 15th (0.90) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link San Antonio City SC to Albion Hurricanes FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 2–3 1–3 1–2 3–2 2–3 1–0 2–2 0–7 8–1 5–3 1–4 1–2 4–3 0–5 7–0 5–4 2–0 2–1 1–5 3–2 1–5 2–1 San Antonio City SC 17th RISE SC 6th SAFC 16th FC Westlake 19th OK Energy FC Academy 5th HTX 3rd Tulsa SC 13th Real Colorado Acade… 18th SOLAR SC 15th Solar SC Academy 9th Dallas Texans 10th Dallas Texans Acade… 2nd Albion Hurricanes FC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 5th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
TBD
no score posted
Solar SC Academy
9th · 3-2-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.63 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Albion Hurricanes FC
8th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.49 0.61 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth Red
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +19
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–3 0.13 0.56 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth White
20th · 0-0-7 · GD -26
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.78 0.68 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 5-1-3 · GD +16
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.22 0.64 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Royal
14th · 2-2-5 · GD -14
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.16 0.68 Upside
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM
Real Colorado Academy
18th · 0-3-5 · GD -12
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 0.71 Upside
Sat Feb 20
11:00 AM
SOLAR SC
15th · 2-0-5 · GD -11
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.94 0.73 Upside
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM
Dallas Texans
10th · 3-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Heritage High School
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–1 0.68 0.72 Upside
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
Dallas Texans Academy
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +17
Away far trip
Centennial HS
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.10 0.68 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
Sting
11th · 4-2-4 · GD +7
Away far trip
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.29 0.66 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
DKSC
12th · 4-1-5 · GD -8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.61 0.66 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Colorado Storm
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +10
Home
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–2 0.28 0.64 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 8710 234+19 222.75 WWWWW +0.20 -0.35 98% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Academy 7610 247+17 192.71 WWWWW -0.11 -0.11 83% 3.2
3 HTX 7520 325+27 172.43 WWWWD -0.13 -0.16 94% 2.5
4 Colorado Storm 6420 155+10 142.33 WWDWD +0.17 -0.19 28% 5.1
5 OK Energy FC Academy 12822 4911+38 262.17 LWWLW -0.12 -0.23 88% 3.4
6 RISE SC 7412 1817+1 131.86 WLDWL -0.24 +0.13 0% 9.0
7 Lonestar ATX Red 9513 2610+16 161.78 WLWLW -0.04 -0.15 8% 6.0
8 Albion Hurricanes FC 7403 1815+3 121.71 WWWLL -0.15 +0.06 0% 9.0
9 Solar SC Academy 7322 2016+4 111.57 LWDWD +0.32 -0.27 1% 7.7
10 Dallas Texans 7313 712-5 101.43 DWLLW +0.12 -0.06 0% 11.3
11 Sting 10424 2013+7 141.40 DLWLW +0.02 -0.16 0% 8.9
12 DKSC 10415 1523-8 131.30 LWLWL +0.34 -0.39 0% 11.3
13 Tulsa SC 11326 1331-18 111.00 LWWDD +0.01 +0.03 0% 14.6
14 Lonestar ATX Royal 9225 822-14 80.89 LWLWL +0.26 -0.15 0% 15.0
15 SOLAR SC 7205 1324-11 60.86 LWLLW +0.02 +0.04 0% 14.6
16 SAFC 5113 815-7 40.80 DLLLW -0.45 +0.21 0% 14.8
17 San Antonio City SC 6114 320-17 40.67 WDLLL +0.11 +0.04 0% 17.3
18 Real Colorado Academy 8035 1022-12 30.38 LLLDL +0.16 -0.05 0% 16.2
19 FC Westlake 8017 529-24 10.13 LLLLL -0.22 +0.34 0% 19.4
20 FC Dallas Youth White 7007 228-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.45 -0.12 0% 19.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.