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Albion Hurricanes FC

ECNL Boys · Texas BU13 · 20 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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8th
4-0-3 record · 7 played
1.71 points per game
+3 goal diff · 18–15
WWWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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Albion Hurricanes FC
8th · 1.71 PPG
at
HTX
3rd · 2.43 PPG

Bear Branch Sportsfields, Field 7 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.1 against · 0.25 expected points)

Season so farAlbion Hurricanes FCHTX
Position8th3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-35-2-0
Points per game1.712.43
Goals for / game2.64.6
Goals against / game2.10.7
Clean sheets05
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L W W WD W W W W
Biggest win4–1 at SOLAR SC10–0 at Tulsa SC
Worst loss3–4 at Solar SC Academy—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.17+2.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15-0.13

Common opponents: SOLAR SC — we 4–1; they 7–0. Solar SC Academy — we 3–4; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    HTX score 4.6/game — well above the league's 2.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    HTX concede only 0.7/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Bear Branch Sportsfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Lonestar ATX Red sit 7th on 1.78 PPG; we are on 1.71.

    A point moves us above Lonestar ATX Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the HTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albion Hurricanes FC – HTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Win
1.88 PPG
6th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
1.63 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 10th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG
9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–4 loss we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 21%
  9. 9th 24%
  10. 10th 19%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 2.75 (+1.04) 1st (2.61) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Texans Academy 2.71 (+1.00) 3rd (2.36) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 HTX 2.43 (+0.72) 2nd (2.45) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Colorado Storm 2.33 (+0.62) 5th (2.10) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 OK Energy FC Academy 2.17 (+0.46) 4th (2.32) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 RISE SC 1.86 (+0.15) 8th (1.57) A point next game
7 Lonestar ATX Red 1.78 (+0.07) 6th (1.95) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Albion Hurricanes FC to HTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
14 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–4 2–2 4–1 0–7 2–3 4–2 3–2 0–2 3–3 1–2 0–0 0–1 3–0 0–4 2–1 3–1 0–5 3–2 5–4 5–3 0–0 0–5 1–8 Albion Hurricanes FC 8th Solar SC Academy 9th SOLAR SC 15th Dallas Texans Acade… 2nd Real Colorado Acade… 18th Dallas Texans 10th SAFC 16th RISE SC 6th OK Energy FC Academy 5th Sting 11th DKSC 12th San Antonio City SC 17th HTX 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 4th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
10:00 AM
no score posted
DKSC
12th · 4-1-5 · GD -8
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 1.74 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM
HTX
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +27
Away far trip
Bear Branch Sportsfields
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 1.58 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
San Antonio City SC
17th · 1-1-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
Specht Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.36 1.66 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Tulsa SC
13th · 3-2-6 · GD -18
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.31 1.72 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
OK Energy FC Academy
5th · 8-2-2 · GD +38
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 1.61 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
FC Westlake
19th · 0-1-7 · GD -24
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.52 1.68 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
09:00 AM
Colorado Storm
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +10
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.94 1.63 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
Sting
11th · 4-2-4 · GD +7
Home
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 1.60 Upside
Sat Apr 17
03:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth Red
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +19
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.37 1.53 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth White
20th · 0-0-7 · GD -26
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 1.59 Bank it
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 5-1-3 · GD +16
Away far trip
Round Rock MultiPurpose Complex
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 1.54 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Royal
14th · 2-2-5 · GD -14
Away far trip
Round Rock MultiPurpose Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.56 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 8710 234+19 222.75 WWWWW +0.20 -0.35 99% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Academy 7610 247+17 192.71 WWWWW -0.11 -0.11 83% 3.2
3 HTX 7520 325+27 172.43 WWWWD -0.13 -0.16 94% 2.4
4 Colorado Storm 6420 155+10 142.33 WWDWD +0.17 -0.19 29% 5.0
5 OK Energy FC Academy 12822 4911+38 262.17 LWWLW -0.12 -0.23 87% 3.4
6 RISE SC 7412 1817+1 131.86 WLDWL -0.24 +0.13 0% 9.1
7 Lonestar ATX Red 9513 2610+16 161.78 WLWLW -0.04 -0.15 8% 6.0
8 Albion Hurricanes FC 7403 1815+3 121.71 WWWLL -0.15 +0.06 0% 9.0
9 Solar SC Academy 7322 2016+4 111.57 LWDWD +0.32 -0.27 1% 7.7
10 Dallas Texans 7313 712-5 101.43 DWLLW +0.12 -0.06 0% 11.2
11 Sting 10424 2013+7 141.40 DLWLW +0.02 -0.16 0% 8.9
12 DKSC 10415 1523-8 131.30 LWLWL +0.34 -0.39 0% 11.4
13 Tulsa SC 11326 1331-18 111.00 LWWDD +0.01 +0.03 0% 14.6
14 Lonestar ATX Royal 9225 822-14 80.89 LWLWL +0.26 -0.15 0% 15.0
15 SOLAR SC 7205 1324-11 60.86 LWLLW +0.02 +0.04 0% 14.5
16 SAFC 5113 815-7 40.80 DLLLW -0.45 +0.21 0% 14.8
17 San Antonio City SC 6114 320-17 40.67 WDLLL +0.11 +0.04 0% 17.3
18 Real Colorado Academy 8035 1022-12 30.38 LLLDL +0.16 -0.05 0% 16.2
19 FC Westlake 8017 529-24 10.13 LLLLL -0.22 +0.34 0% 19.4
20 FC Dallas Youth White 7007 228-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.45 -0.12 0% 19.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.