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Dallas Texans Academy

ECNL Boys · Texas BU13 · 20 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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2nd
6-1-0 record · 7 played
2.71 points per game
+17 goal diff · 24–7
WWWWWlast 5
82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Dallas Texans Academy
2nd · 2.71 PPG
at
Tulsa SC
13th · 1.00 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.62 expected points)

Season so farDallas Texans AcademyTulsa SC
Position2nd13th
Record (W-D-L)6-1-03-2-6
Points per game2.711.00
Goals for / game3.41.2
Goals against / game1.02.8
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W W W WD D W W L
Biggest win4–0 vs FC Dallas Youth White5–1 vs San Antonio City SC
Worst loss—0–10 vs HTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.65-1.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.11+0.01

Common opponents: DKSC — we 3–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Jenks Sports Complex .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth Red sit 1st on 2.75 PPG; we are on 2.71.

    A win moves us above FC Dallas Youth Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tulsa SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans Academy – Tulsa SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.75 PPG
1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.75 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.38 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st
82% top 4
18% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 9%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 25%
  4. 4th 28%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.89 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 2.75 (+0.04) 1st (2.61) Win next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 16 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans Academy to Tulsa SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 3–1 5–1 0–0 1–5 0–6 3–0 3–2 2–1 1–2 4–0 1–8 3–1 3–2 1–1 4–2 1–1 1–1 2–1 1–2 0–5 1–1 1–0 2–0 1–3 2–1 Dallas Texans Acade… 2nd DKSC 12th RISE SC 6th Albion Hurricanes FC 8th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 20th Solar SC Academy 9th FC Dallas Youth Red 1st San Antonio City SC 17th Lonestar ATX Red 7th SAFC 16th Sting 11th Real Colorado Acade… 18th Colorado Storm 4th FC Westlake 19th Lonestar ATX Royal 14th Tulsa SC 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 10th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Tulsa SC
13th · 3-2-6 · GD -18
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.62 2.70 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
OK Energy FC Academy
5th · 8-2-2 · GD +38
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.88 2.50 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Royal
14th · 2-2-5 · GD -14
Home
Beacon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.52 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 5-1-3 · GD +16
Home
Beacon Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.69 2.45 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM
FC Westlake
19th · 0-1-7 · GD -24
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.91 2.49 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
HTX
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +27
Home
Centennial HS
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.09 2.38 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Academy
18th · 0-3-5 · GD -12
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.56 2.39 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Colorado Storm
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Regis University · turf
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 2.33 Upside
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM
SAFC
16th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.72 2.35 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
San Antonio City SC
17th · 1-1-4 · GD -17
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.38 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Sting
11th · 4-2-4 · GD +7
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.78 2.35 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
SOLAR SC
15th · 2-0-5 · GD -11
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.62 2.36 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 8710 234+19 222.75 WWWWW +0.20 -0.35 99% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Academy 7610 247+17 192.71 WWWWW -0.11 -0.11 82% 3.3
3 HTX 7520 325+27 172.43 WWWWD -0.13 -0.16 94% 2.4
4 Colorado Storm 6420 155+10 142.33 WWDWD +0.17 -0.19 28% 5.0
5 OK Energy FC Academy 12822 4911+38 262.17 LWWLW -0.12 -0.23 87% 3.4
6 RISE SC 7412 1817+1 131.86 WLDWL -0.24 +0.13 0% 9.1
7 Lonestar ATX Red 9513 2610+16 161.78 WLWLW -0.04 -0.15 8% 5.9
8 Albion Hurricanes FC 7403 1815+3 121.71 WWWLL -0.15 +0.06 0% 9.0
9 Solar SC Academy 7322 2016+4 111.57 LWDWD +0.32 -0.27 1% 7.8
10 Dallas Texans 7313 712-5 101.43 DWLLW +0.12 -0.06 0% 11.3
11 Sting 10424 2013+7 141.40 DLWLW +0.02 -0.16 0% 8.9
12 DKSC 10415 1523-8 131.30 LWLWL +0.34 -0.39 0% 11.4
13 Tulsa SC 11326 1331-18 111.00 LWWDD +0.01 +0.03 0% 14.6
14 Lonestar ATX Royal 9225 822-14 80.89 LWLWL +0.26 -0.15 0% 15.1
15 SOLAR SC 7205 1324-11 60.86 LWLLW +0.02 +0.04 0% 14.5
16 SAFC 5113 815-7 40.80 DLLLW -0.45 +0.21 0% 14.8
17 San Antonio City SC 6114 320-17 40.67 WDLLL +0.11 +0.04 0% 17.3
18 Real Colorado Academy 8035 1022-12 30.38 LLLDL +0.16 -0.05 0% 16.2
19 FC Westlake 8017 529-24 10.13 LLLLL -0.22 +0.34 0% 19.4
20 FC Dallas Youth White 7007 228-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.45 -0.12 0% 19.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.