South Carolina Surf
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU15 · 9 teams · South Carolina Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.0 against · 1.38 expected points)
| Season so far | South Carolina Surf | Concorde Fire Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-2 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L W D | L L L W L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs GSA | 2–1 vs Concorde Fire Platinum |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at NTH NASA | 1–5 at Concorde Fire Platinum |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.67 | -0.69 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.19 | +0.38 |
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Platinum — we 0–0; they 1–5, 2–1. GSA — we 1–0; they 0–3. NTH NASA — we 1–6; they 0–1. Atlanta Fire United — we 0–2; they 0–1. South Carolina United — we 2–2; they 0–0.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Concorde Fire Premier average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 5 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Concorde Fire Platinum, 0–2 at Atlanta Fire United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 36%; a draw (31%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Concorde Fire Premier have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Georgia Sports Park .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
GSA sit 5th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above GSA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Concorde Fire Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Carolina Surf – Concorde Fire Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.33 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.83 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 27%
- 7th 29%
- 8th 20%
- 9th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 2.63 (+1.63) | 1st (2.44) | 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (1.97) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Atlanta Fire United | 1.88 (+0.88) | 3rd (1.77) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 4 | CESA Triumph | 1.50 (+0.50) | 4th (1.57) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | GSA | 1.17 (+0.17) | 5th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
32 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link South Carolina Surf to Concorde Fire Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–0 | 1.38 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
NTH NASA 1st · 7-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home Pinewood Prep |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.40 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.82 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.30 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
0–1 | 1.08 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
GSA 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.87 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 PM |
South Carolina United 9th · 1-2-5 · GD -14 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 0.99 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 01:45 PM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–0 | 1.58 | 1.01 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWL | -0.18 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GSA · Sun Oct 25 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 16 | 2.00 | WLWLW | -0.14 | -0.05 | 98% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs GSA · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Triumph See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Atlanta Fire United | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 15 | 1.88 | LWWWW | -0.07 | -0.07 | 94% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sun Nov 1 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | CESA Triumph | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | WDWLD | -0.00 | -0.10 | 77% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at GSA · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | GSA | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLW | -0.14 | +0.04 | 22% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 24 at NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | South Carolina Surf | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.19 | -0.02 | 4% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 vs NTH NASA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Concorde Fire Premier | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | LWLLL | +0.38 | -0.15 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | United Futbol Academy | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.31 | -0.16 | 4% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | South Carolina United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 | 0.63 | LWLLD | +0.11 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.