CESA Triumph
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU15 · 9 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.27 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Triumph | South Carolina United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-2 | 1-2-5 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.63 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W D W | D L L W L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs South Carolina United | 2–1 vs United Futbol Academy |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Concorde Fire Platinum | 0–5 at CESA Triumph |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.33 | -1.18 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.00 | +0.11 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 5–0 vs South Carolina United (W)
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–0; they 0–0. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–3; they 2–5. United Futbol Academy — we 3–1, 0–0; they 2–1. GSA — we 3–3; they 0–2. Atlanta Fire United — we 2–1; they 0–2. NTH NASA — we 1–3; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina United concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–5 at CESA Triumph.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Concorde Fire Premier, 0–0 at United Futbol Academy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Southeastern Freight Lines Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph – South Carolina United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.44 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 48%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTH NASA | 2.63 (+1.13) | 1st (2.44) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (1.97) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 3 | Atlanta Fire United | 1.88 (+0.38) | 3rd (1.77) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
How the results connect
41 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Triumph to South Carolina United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 03:00 PM no score posted |
GSA 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
South Carolina United 9th · 1-2-5 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.27 | 1.58 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.20 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
NTH NASA 1st · 7-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Metro North Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Pinecrest Academy · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 01:45 PM |
South Carolina Surf 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -6 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.19 | 1.57 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | NTH NASA | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWL | -0.18 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GSA · Sun Oct 25 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 16 | 2.00 | WLWLW | -0.14 | -0.05 | 99% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs GSA · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Triumph See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Atlanta Fire United | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 15 | 1.88 | LWWWW | -0.07 | -0.07 | 95% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sun Nov 1 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CESA Triumph | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | WDWLD | -0.00 | -0.10 | 79% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at GSA · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | GSA | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLW | -0.14 | +0.04 | 20% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 24 at NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina Surf | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.19 | -0.02 | 3% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 vs NTH NASA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Concorde Fire Premier | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | LWLLL | +0.38 | -0.15 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | United Futbol Academy | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.31 | -0.16 | 4% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 | 0.63 | LWLLD | +0.11 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.