NTH NASA
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU14 · 9 teams · NASA Tophat (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 05:00 PM
Lake Point Sporting Community, Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.2 against · 2.38 expected points)
| Season so far | NTH NASA | Atlanta Fire United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-0 | 0-2-2 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W W | D D L L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at United Futbol Academy | — |
| Worst loss | — | 2–6 at GSA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.82 | -0.64 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | +0.03 |
Common opponents: United Futbol Academy — we 3–1; they 1–2. GSA — we 4–2; they 2–6. Concorde Fire Premier — we 3–1; they 1–1. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–1; they 1–1.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Atlanta Fire United concede 2.5/game; worst result 2–6 at GSA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
GSA sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.A point moves us above GSA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Atlanta Fire United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTH NASA – Atlanta Fire United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.60 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.60 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Draw 2.20 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 31%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 2%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 2.50 (+0.00) | 3rd (2.09) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link NTH NASA to Atlanta Fire United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 05:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 0-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home Lake Point Sporting Community |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.38 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
South Carolina United 5th · 2-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 01:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 0-2-2 · GD -5 |
Away Pinecrest Academy · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
South Carolina United 5th · 2-1-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 10:45 AM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 11:00 AM |
GSA 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 2.13 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.50 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Metro North Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–0 | 2.52 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.04 | 2.10 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.33 | -0.02 | 99% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Triumph See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NTH NASA | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.03 | -0.19 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 21 vs CESA Triumph · Sun Nov 22 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 11 | 2.20 | WWWDD | -0.34 | -0.04 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CESA Triumph | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.25 | -0.11 | 64% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 22 at Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Carolina United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLDW | -0.12 | -0.02 | 29% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 22 at NTH NASA · Sat Feb 13 at South Carolina Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.13 | -0.04 | 9% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | 0.50 | LLDD | +0.03 | +0.05 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTH NASA · Sat Nov 21 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 22 vs CESA Triumph See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Concorde Fire Premier | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.42 | +0.01 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Jan 24 at South Carolina Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.62 | -0.04 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.