CESA Triumph

ECNL Boys · Southeast BU14 · 9 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)

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4th

2-0-1 record · 3 played

2.00 points per game

+1 goal diff · 5–4

WWLlast 3

66% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

+0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 09:00 AM

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CESA Triumph
4th · 2.00 PPG

NTH NASA
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Metro North Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

23% 20% 57%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.2 against · 0.89 expected points)

Season so far	CESA Triumph	NTH NASA
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-1	3-1-0
Points per game	2.00	2.50
Goals for / game	1.7	2.8
Goals against / game	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L W W	D W W W
Biggest win	2–1 vs South Carolina United	3–1 at United Futbol Academy
Worst loss	1–2 vs GSA	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.15	+0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.25	+0.03

Common opponents: United Futbol Academy — we 2–1; they 3–1. GSA — we 1–2; they 4–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
NTH NASA score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Metro North Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Concorde Fire Platinum sit 3rd on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A point moves us above Concorde Fire Platinum on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NTH NASA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph – NTH NASA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Win 2.25 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2
Draw 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

66% top 4

34% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 5%
3rd 14%
4th 45%
5th 23%
6th 9%
7th 2%
8th <1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	GSA	2.50 (+0.50)	3rd (2.09)	34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2	NTH NASA	2.50 (+0.50)	1st (2.10)	34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3	Concorde Fire Platinum	2.20 (+0.20)	2nd (2.10)	A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link CESA Triumph to NTH NASA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

2 even

4 favour them

-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 11 01:00 PM no score posted	United Futbol Academy 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Fowler Park	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–1	1.50	1.88	Upside
Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM	NTH NASA 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6	Away far trip Metro North Park	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.68	Upside
Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM	Atlanta Fire United 7th · 0-2-2 · GD -5	Away far trip Pinecrest Academy · grass	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.74	1.69	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 12:00 PM	South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.17	1.76	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 03:00 PM	Concorde Fire Premier 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -12	Away far trip Georgia Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–0	2.16	1.81	Swing game
Sun Feb 21 01:00 PM	Concorde Fire Platinum 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9	Away far trip Georgia Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	0–1	0.75	1.69	Upside
Sun Feb 28 10:45 AM	NTH NASA 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.14	1.64	Upside
Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM	South Carolina United 5th · 2-1-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Southeastern Freight Lines Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.23	1.60	Upside
Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM	GSA 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +8	Away far trip Rabbit Hill Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.92	1.54	Upside
Sat Mar 20 12:30 PM	Concorde Fire Platinum 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–1	0.96	1.50	Upside
Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM	Concorde Fire Premier 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -12	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–0	2.36	1.56	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 10:45 AM	Atlanta Fire United 7th · 0-2-2 · GD -5	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	2.00	1.59	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7	Away far trip Shea Family Fields	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.93	1.61	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

GSA

2.50

LWWWW

-0.33

-0.02

98%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	South Carolina United (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	6–2

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Triumph See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 1	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTH NASA

2.50

WWWD

+0.03

-0.19

98%

2.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	GSA (1st)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 21 vs CESA Triumph · Sun Nov 22 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	South Carolina United (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	GSA (1st)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat May 1	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Platinum

2.20

WWWDD

-0.34

-0.04

99%

2.1

D	Sun Oct 18	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	86%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	GSA (1st)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	South Carolina United (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	GSA (1st)	1–1	43%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CESA Triumph

2.00

WWL

+0.25

-0.11

66%

4.2

L	Sun Sep 20	vs	GSA (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 11 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 22 at Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	South Carolina United (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	GSA (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina United

1.17

LWLDW

-0.12

-0.02

28%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	GSA (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	4–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 21 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 22 at NTH NASA · Sat Feb 13 at South Carolina Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	GSA (1st)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United Futbol Academy

-2

1.00

LWLD

+0.13

-0.04

10%

5.8

D	Sun Sep 20	at	South Carolina United (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 11 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	GSA (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat May 1	vs	GSA (1st)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlanta Fire United

-5

0.50

LLDD

+0.03

+0.05

7.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	GSA (1st)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTH NASA · Sat Nov 21 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 22 vs CESA Triumph See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	South Carolina United (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	GSA (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Premier

-12

0.20

LLLLD

+0.42

+0.01

8.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	GSA (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Jan 24 at South Carolina Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	South Carolina United (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	GSA (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-7

0.00

LLL

+0.62

-0.04

7.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	South Carolina United (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	GSA (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	South Carolina United (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NTH NASA (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	GSA (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	United Futbol Academy (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	CESA Triumph (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NTH NASA (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Atlanta Fire United (7th)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.