Concorde Fire Premier
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU14 · 9 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 2 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.6 against · 1.20 expected points)
| Season so far | Concorde Fire Premier | South Carolina Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-4 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L L L | L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs South Carolina United | 0–5 vs Concorde Fire Platinum |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.31 | -0.95 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.42 | +0.62 |
Common opponents: South Carolina United — we 0–4; they 1–2. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 0–3; they 0–5. GSA — we 0–3; they 1–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
South Carolina Surf average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 1 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina Surf concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–5 vs Concorde Fire Platinum.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs South Carolina United, 0–3 vs Concorde Fire Platinum, 0–3 vs GSA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 32%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
South Carolina Surf have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Atlanta Fire United sit 7th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.20.A point moves us above Atlanta Fire United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.33 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.17 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 25%
- 9th 67%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 2.50 (+2.30) | 3rd (2.09) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | NTH NASA | 2.50 (+2.30) | 1st (2.10) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.20 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.10) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | CESA Triumph | 2.00 (+1.80) | 4th (1.61) | 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 5 | South Carolina United | 1.17 (+0.97) | 5th (1.38) | 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 1.00 (+0.80) | 6th (1.21) | 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 0.50 (+0.30) | 7th (0.89) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Premier to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 2nd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9 |
Away Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–2 | 0.23 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 03:00 PM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.64 | 0.45 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
0–1 | 0.83 | 0.49 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 03:00 PM |
South Carolina United 5th · 2-1-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.46 | 0.48 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 0.48 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
GSA 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.25 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM |
NTH NASA 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.37 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.64 | 0.47 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 0-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.50 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.33 | -0.02 | 99% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Triumph See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NTH NASA | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.03 | -0.19 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 21 vs CESA Triumph · Sun Nov 22 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 11 | 2.20 | WWWDD | -0.34 | -0.04 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CESA Triumph | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.25 | -0.11 | 64% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 22 at Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Carolina United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLDW | -0.12 | -0.02 | 29% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 22 at NTH NASA · Sat Feb 13 at South Carolina Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.13 | -0.04 | 9% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | 0.50 | LLDD | +0.03 | +0.05 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTH NASA · Sat Nov 21 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 22 vs CESA Triumph See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Concorde Fire Premier | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.42 | +0.01 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Jan 24 at South Carolina Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.62 | -0.04 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.