GSA
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU14 · 9 teams · Gwinnett Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, 09:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.3 against · 2.14 expected points)
| Season so far | GSA | United Futbol Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | D L W L |
| Biggest win | 6–2 vs Atlanta Fire United | 2–1 vs Atlanta Fire United |
| Worst loss | 2–4 vs NTH NASA | 1–3 vs NTH NASA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.80 | -0.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.33 | +0.13 |
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 6–2; they 2–1. NTH NASA — we 2–4; they 1–3. South Carolina United — we 2–1; they 1–1. CESA Triumph — we 2–1; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 17% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GSA – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 32%
- 2nd 31%
- 3rd 29%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
10 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link GSA to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 2.27 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 11:00 AM |
NTH NASA 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away Metro North Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.20 | 2.12 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 0-2-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.52 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -12 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.66 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 5th · 2-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 2.09 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.33 | -0.02 | 99% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 7 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Triumph See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NTH NASA | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.03 | -0.19 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 21 vs CESA Triumph · Sun Nov 22 vs South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 11 | 2.20 | WWWDD | -0.34 | -0.04 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CESA Triumph | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.25 | -0.11 | 65% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 22 at Atlanta Fire United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Carolina United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLDW | -0.12 | -0.02 | 28% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 22 at NTH NASA · Sat Feb 13 at South Carolina Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | United Futbol Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.13 | -0.04 | 11% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | 0.50 | LLDD | +0.03 | +0.05 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTH NASA · Sat Nov 21 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 22 vs CESA Triumph See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Concorde Fire Premier | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.42 | +0.01 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Jan 24 at South Carolina Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.62 | -0.04 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.