River Islands Surf
ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU18/19 · 17 teams · Valley Surf | America (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
River Islands Sports Park, Field 2 (11v11) ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.29 expected points)
| Season so far | River Islands Surf | El Camino FC Salinas |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-5 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L D L D W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs 1974 Newark FC | 2–1 vs Marin FC |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs Davis Legacy | 0–5 vs Placer United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.32 | -0.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.20 | +0.30 |
Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 0–7; they 1–4. Association FC B08/09 — we 1–1; they 3–3. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
El Camino FC Salinas concede 2.9/game; worst result 0–5 vs Placer United.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 vs Davis Legacy, 0–4 at Mustang Soccer.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 36%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Folsom Lake Surf sit 15th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.57.A point moves us above Folsom Lake Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the El Camino FC Salinas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (River Islands Surf – El Camino FC Salinas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 17th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.88 PPG |
13th▲ up 3 | 14th▲ up 2 | 15th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.63 PPG |
16th— holds | 15th▲ up 1 | 16th— holds |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 17th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th 1%
- 13th 4%
- 14th 14%
- 15th 24%
- 16th 44%
- 17th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 2.71 (+2.14) | 1st (2.23) | 40 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Davis Legacy | 2.17 (+1.60) | 2nd (2.18) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Placer United | 2.00 (+1.43) | 3rd (1.91) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Mustang Soccer | 2.00 (+1.43) | 4th (1.88) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 5 | Santa Rosa United | 1.71 (+1.14) | 5th (1.66) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | Napa United | 1.71 (+1.14) | 10th (1.46) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 7 | San Juan SC B08/09 | 1.60 (+1.03) | 6th (1.61) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 1.57 (+1.00) | 7th (1.54) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 9 | MVLA | 1.50 (+0.93) | 9th (1.46) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 10 | Santa Clara Sporting | 1.40 (+0.83) | 8th (1.50) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 11 | Marin FC | 1.17 (+0.60) | 12th (1.33) | 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 12 | COSC | 1.00 (+0.43) | 11th (1.35) | 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 13 | Association FC B08/09 | 0.86 (+0.29) | 13th (1.05) | A point next game |
| 14 | El Camino FC Salinas | 0.71 (+0.14) | 14th (0.86) | A point next game |
| 15 | Folsom Lake Surf | 0.67 (+0.10) | 15th (0.74) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link River Islands Surf to El Camino FC Salinas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 10th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
El Camino FC Salinas 14th · 1-2-4 · GD -11 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–2 | 1.29 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
COSC 12th · 2-1-4 · GD +2 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.61 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Santa Clara Sporting 10th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.49 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
San Juan SC B08/09 7th · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Placer United 3rd · 3-3-0 · GD +9 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
MVLA 9th · 2-3-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.65 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Marin FC 11th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 03:15 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 15th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Econome Family Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 8th · 3-2-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 0.65 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWDW | -0.39 | +0.20 | 96% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC B08/09 · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWL | -0.21 | -0.02 | 95% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC B08/09 · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Placer United | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 | 2.00 | WDDWD | -0.30 | +0.09 | 69% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B08/09 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Mustang Soccer | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 14 | 2.00 | DDLWW | +0.03 | -0.10 | 59% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Santa Rosa United | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLL | -0.23 | +0.12 | 25% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC B08/09 See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Napa United | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 12 | 1.71 | WLLWW | -0.25 | +0.15 | 7% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | San Juan SC B08/09 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | WLDWD | +0.28 | -0.16 | 18% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B08/09 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 11 | 1.57 | WLWDW | +0.27 | -0.20 | 11% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | MVLA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 9 | 1.50 | WDWLD | +0.17 | -0.09 | 6% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Santa Clara Sporting | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | WDLWL | -0.04 | -0.03 | 10% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B08/09 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Marin FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | WLWLD | +0.07 | -0.05 | 3% | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | COSC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 7 | 1.00 | DLWWL | +0.16 | -0.18 | 3% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Association FC B08/09 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 | 0.86 | LDLDW | -0.12 | +0.12 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC B08/09 · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 5 | 0.71 | WDLDL | +0.30 | -0.13 | 0% | 14.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Folsom Lake Surf | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLW | +0.02 | +0.09 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | River Islands Surf | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWLL | +0.20 | -0.04 | 0% | 15.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 15 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | 1974 Newark FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.05 | 0% | 16.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.