TableChase Clubs

Association FC B08/09

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU18/19 · 17 teams · Association Football Club (all teams)

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13th
1-3-3 record · 7 played
0.86 points per game
-3 goal diff · 12–15
LDLDWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.6
-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM

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Association FC B08/09
13th · 0.86 PPG
vs
Santa Clara Sporting
10th · 1.40 PPG

Witter Sports Complex, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.23 expected points)

Season so farAssociation FC B08/09Santa Clara Sporting
Position13th10th
Record (W-D-L)1-3-32-1-2
Points per game0.861.40
Goals for / game1.71.8
Goals against / game2.11.4
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W D L D LL W L D W
Biggest win4–2 at COSC3–0 vs San Juan SC B08/09
Worst loss0–3 at Santa Rosa United1–2 at MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.26+0.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.12-0.04

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Santa Rosa United, 0–0 vs Mustang Soccer.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    COSC sit 12th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.

    A point moves us above COSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Clara Sporting game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Association FC B08/09 – Santa Clara Sporting) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.88 PPG		 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 2
Win
1.13 PPG		 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1 13th— holds
Draw
0.88 PPG		 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG		 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 32%
  14. 14th 20%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.71 (+1.85) 1st (2.23) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Davis Legacy 2.17 (+1.31) 2nd (2.18) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Placer United 2.00 (+1.14) 3rd (1.91) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 Mustang Soccer 2.00 (+1.14) 4th (1.88) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 Santa Rosa United 1.71 (+0.85) 5th (1.66) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.85) 10th (1.46) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
7 San Juan SC B08/09 1.60 (+0.74) 6th (1.61) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.57 (+0.71) 7th (1.54) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 MVLA 1.50 (+0.64) 9th (1.46) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 Santa Clara Sporting 1.40 (+0.54) 8th (1.50) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 Marin FC 1.17 (+0.31) 12th (1.33) 13 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
12 COSC 1.00 (+0.14) 11th (1.35) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Association FC B08/09 to Santa Clara Sporting through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
4 even
4 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 0–1 2–1 2–1 3–4 2–3 1–1 0–0 2–1 4–2 0–1 1–1 3–5 2–2 1–0 2–1 2–3 3–2 3–5 0–3 1–1 0–1 Association FC B08/… 13th El Camino FC Salinas 14th Los Gatos United So… 8th Mustang Soccer 4th COSC 12th Napa United 6th MVLA 9th Marin FC 11th Placer United 3rd Folsom Lake Surf 15th San Juan SC B08/09 7th Santa Clara Sporting 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:30 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
10th · 2-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
Witter Sports Complex · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.23 0.90 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 San Juan SC B08/09
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.97 0.91 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM		 Placer United
3rd · 3-3-0 · GD +9		 Home
Witter Sports Complex · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.83 0.90 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM		 MVLA
9th · 2-3-1 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Foothill College		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.09 0.92 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.38 0.96 Upside
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
15th · 1-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.05 1.04 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
02:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.40 1.00 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -14		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.09 1.07 Swing game
Sun May 2
04:00 PM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +12		 Home
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.79 1.05 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Francisco Elite Academy 7610 197+12 192.71 WWWDW -0.39 +0.20 95% 2.0
2 Davis Legacy 6411 205+15 132.17 WDWWL -0.21 -0.02 94% 2.1
3 Placer United 6330 134+9 122.00 WDDWD -0.30 +0.09 67% 3.9
4 Mustang Soccer 7421 93+6 142.00 DDLWW +0.03 -0.10 59% 4.4
5 Santa Rosa United 7403 1610+6 121.71 WWWLL -0.23 +0.12 25% 6.4
6 Napa United 7403 1717+0 121.71 WLLWW -0.25 +0.15 8% 8.9
7 San Juan SC B08/09 5221 109+1 81.60 WLDWD +0.28 -0.16 18% 7.1
8 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7322 1212+0 111.57 WLWDW +0.27 -0.20 11% 8.0
9 MVLA 6231 66+0 91.50 WDWLD +0.17 -0.09 6% 8.8
10 Santa Clara Sporting 5212 97+2 71.40 WDLWL -0.04 -0.03 11% 8.1
11 Marin FC 6213 1313+0 71.17 WLWLD +0.07 -0.05 2% 10.0
12 COSC 7214 2018+2 71.00 DLWWL +0.16 -0.18 3% 9.6
13 Association FC B08/09 7133 1215-3 60.86 LDLDW -0.12 +0.12 0% 12.6
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7124 920-11 50.71 WDLDL +0.30 -0.13 0% 14.2
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 718-11 40.67 LLDLW +0.02 +0.09 0% 14.8
16 River Islands Surf 7115 721-14 40.57 LLWLL +0.20 -0.04 0% 15.4
17 1974 Newark FC 5005 317-14 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.05 0% 16.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.