TableChase Clubs

MVLA

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU18/19 · 17 teams · MVLA (all teams)

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9th
2-3-1 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 6–6
WDWLDlast 5
6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.8
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:45 PM

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MVLA
9th · 1.50 PPG
at
Marin FC
11th · 1.17 PPG

Dominican University, Kennelly Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.5 against · 1.29 expected points)

Season so farMVLAMarin FC
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-3-12-1-3
Points per game1.501.17
Goals for / game1.02.2
Goals against / game1.02.2
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L W D WD L W L W
Biggest win1–0 vs El Camino FC Salinas5–3 vs COSC
Worst loss0–2 at San Juan SC B08/091–2 at Mustang Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.05+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17+0.07

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 1–1; they 1–0. El Camino FC Salinas — we 1–0; they 1–2. COSC — we 1–1; they 5–3. Santa Clara Sporting — we 2–1; they 3–4. San Juan SC B08/09 — we 0–2; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at San Juan SC B08/09.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:45 PM at Dominican University.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Los Gatos United Soccer Club sit 8th on 1.57 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Los Gatos United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Marin FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Marin FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.43 PPG		 9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Win
1.71 PPG		 6th▲ up 3 5th▲ up 4 9th— holds
Draw
1.43 PPG		 9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Loss
1.29 PPG		 11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
6% top 4
94% below the top 4
8.8 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 10%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.71 (+1.21) 1st (2.23) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Davis Legacy 2.17 (+0.67) 2nd (2.18) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Placer United 2.00 (+0.50) 3rd (1.91) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
4 Mustang Soccer 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.88) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Santa Rosa United 1.71 (+0.21) 5th (1.66) A point next game
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.21) 10th (1.46) A point next game
7 San Juan SC B08/09 1.60 (+0.10) 6th (1.61) A point next game
8 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.57 (+0.07) 7th (1.54) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to Marin FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–1 0–2 2–2 2–1 4–3 1–1 3–5 1–0 2–1 1–1 1–1 1–0 1–1 5–3 0–3 MVLA 9th Los Gatos United So… 8th San Juan SC B08/09 7th Santa Clara Sporting 10th COSC 12th El Camino FC Salinas 14th Placer United 3rd Marin FC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:45 PM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Dominican University		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.29 1.47 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
15th · 1-1-4 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–1 1.84 1.52 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 0–1 0.64 1.42 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM		 Association FC B08/09
13th · 1-3-3 · GD -3		 Home
Foothill College		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.65 1.44 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
25%		 1–1 1.01 1.40 Upside
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +6		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.05 1.37 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 River Islands Surf
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -14		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 2–0 2.15 1.43 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Napa United
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +0		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.58 1.44 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +6		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
25%		 0–0 1.10 1.42 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -14		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 1–0 2.09 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Francisco Elite Academy 7610 197+12 192.71 WWWDW -0.39 +0.20 96% 2.0
2 Davis Legacy 6411 205+15 132.17 WDWWL -0.21 -0.02 95% 2.1
3 Placer United 6330 134+9 122.00 WDDWD -0.30 +0.09 69% 4.0
4 Mustang Soccer 7421 93+6 142.00 DDLWW +0.03 -0.10 59% 4.4
5 Santa Rosa United 7403 1610+6 121.71 WWWLL -0.23 +0.12 25% 6.4
6 Napa United 7403 1717+0 121.71 WLLWW -0.25 +0.15 7% 8.8
7 San Juan SC B08/09 5221 109+1 81.60 WLDWD +0.28 -0.16 18% 7.1
8 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7322 1212+0 111.57 WLWDW +0.27 -0.20 11% 7.9
9 MVLA 6231 66+0 91.50 WDWLD +0.17 -0.09 6% 8.8
10 Santa Clara Sporting 5212 97+2 71.40 WDLWL -0.04 -0.03 10% 8.3
11 Marin FC 6213 1313+0 71.17 WLWLD +0.07 -0.05 3% 10.1
12 COSC 7214 2018+2 71.00 DLWWL +0.16 -0.18 3% 9.6
13 Association FC B08/09 7133 1215-3 60.86 LDLDW -0.12 +0.12 0% 12.6
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7124 920-11 50.71 WDLDL +0.30 -0.13 0% 14.1
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 718-11 40.67 LLDLW +0.02 +0.09 0% 14.8
16 River Islands Surf 7115 721-14 40.57 LLWLL +0.20 -0.04 0% 15.4
17 1974 Newark FC 5005 317-14 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.05 0% 16.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.