TableChase Clubs

1974 Newark FC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU18/19 · 17 teams · 1974 Newark FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 38 minutes ago.
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17th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-14 goal diff · 3–17
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.6
+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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1974 Newark FC
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Mustang Soccer
4th · 2.00 PPG

Newark Sportsfield Park, SFT #2 11v11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.6 for, 2.0 against · 0.45 expected points)

Season so far1974 Newark FCMustang Soccer
Position17th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-54-2-1
Points per game0.002.00
Goals for / game0.61.3
Goals against / game3.40.4
Clean sheets05
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W L D D
Biggest win—4–0 vs River Islands Surf
Worst loss0–4 vs Santa Rosa United0–2 vs San Francisco Elite Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.66+0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.16+0.03

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–4; they 0–2. Santa Rosa United — we 0–4; they 1–0. River Islands Surf — we 0–2; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Mustang Soccer concede only 0.4/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Santa Rosa United, 0–2 at River Islands Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mustang Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (1974 Newark FC – Mustang Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG		 17th— holds 16th▲ up 1 17th— holds
Draw
0.17 PPG		 17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th 16%
  17. 17th 75%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.71 (+2.71) 1st (2.23) 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Davis Legacy 2.17 (+2.17) 2nd (2.18) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Placer United 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (1.91) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Mustang Soccer 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.88) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Santa Rosa United 1.71 (+1.71) 5th (1.66) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+1.71) 10th (1.46) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 San Juan SC B08/09 1.60 (+1.60) 6th (1.61) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.57 (+1.57) 7th (1.54) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
9 MVLA 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.46) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10 Santa Clara Sporting 1.40 (+1.40) 8th (1.50) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
11 Marin FC 1.17 (+1.17) 12th (1.33) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 COSC 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (1.35) 16 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
13 Association FC B08/09 0.86 (+0.86) 13th (1.05) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
14 El Camino FC Salinas 0.71 (+0.71) 14th (0.86) 12 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
15 Folsom Lake Surf 0.67 (+0.67) 15th (0.74) 11 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
16 River Islands Surf 0.57 (+0.57) 16th (0.65) 10 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link 1974 Newark FC to Mustang Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
18 favour them
-3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 2–0 0–4 0–1 0–2 0–4 1–3 3–2 0–0 2–3 1–2 3–0 1–1 3–1 3–2 0–2 4–2 1974 Newark FC 17th San Francisco Elite… 1st Santa Rosa United 5th River Islands Surf 16th Napa United 6th Association FC B08/… 13th Folsom Lake Surf 15th Mustang Soccer 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Mustang Soccer
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +6		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.45 0.08 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away far trip
San Rafael High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.40 0.12 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
8th · 3-2-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Monta Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.42 0.16 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
15th · 1-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.17 0.27 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
10th · 2-1-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.37 0.28 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
14th · 1-2-4 · GD -11		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.80 0.33 Upside
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.31 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 COSC
12th · 2-1-4 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.44 0.32 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Association FC B08/09
13th · 1-3-3 · GD -3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.72 0.35 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 MVLA
9th · 2-3-1 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
16%		 0–1 0.69 0.37 Upside
Sat May 15
05:00 PM		 San Juan SC B08/09
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.36 0.37 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Francisco Elite Academy 7610 197+12 192.71 WWWDW -0.39 +0.20 95% 2.0
2 Davis Legacy 6411 205+15 132.17 WDWWL -0.21 -0.02 93% 2.1
3 Placer United 6330 134+9 122.00 WDDWD -0.30 +0.09 69% 3.9
4 Mustang Soccer 7421 93+6 142.00 DDLWW +0.03 -0.10 59% 4.4
5 Santa Rosa United 7403 1610+6 121.71 WWWLL -0.23 +0.12 24% 6.5
6 Napa United 7403 1717+0 121.71 WLLWW -0.25 +0.15 7% 8.9
7 San Juan SC B08/09 5221 109+1 81.60 WLDWD +0.28 -0.16 19% 7.0
8 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7322 1212+0 111.57 WLWDW +0.27 -0.20 11% 7.9
9 MVLA 6231 66+0 91.50 WDWLD +0.17 -0.09 6% 8.7
10 Santa Clara Sporting 5212 97+2 71.40 WDLWL -0.04 -0.03 10% 8.2
11 Marin FC 6213 1313+0 71.17 WLWLD +0.07 -0.05 3% 10.1
12 COSC 7214 2018+2 71.00 DLWWL +0.16 -0.18 3% 9.6
13 Association FC B08/09 7133 1215-3 60.86 LDLDW -0.12 +0.12 0% 12.6
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7124 920-11 50.71 WDLDL +0.30 -0.13 0% 14.2
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 718-11 40.67 LLDLW +0.02 +0.09 0% 14.9
16 River Islands Surf 7115 721-14 40.57 LLWLL +0.20 -0.04 0% 15.4
17 1974 Newark FC 5005 317-14 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.05 0% 16.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.