Tennessee SC

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Drakes Creek Park (DCP), Field 10 ↗ far trip

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.37 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Aug 22 4–2 vs Tennessee United SC (W)

Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 0–1; they 0–4. Germantown Legends — we 0–1; they 2–3. Louisiana Fire SC — we 1–1; they 4–7. Mississippi Rush United — we 7–1; they 2–4. FC Alliance TN — we 4–1; they 4–1. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 1–0; they 3–4. Coastal Rush — we 3–1; they 1–4. Alabama FC — we 1–0; they 0–1.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Tennessee United SC concede 3.6/game; worst result 0–4 at Lobos Rush.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Lobos Rush, 0–1 at Germantown Legends.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Away game
  Kickoff 05:00 PM at Drakes Creek Park (DCP).

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Coastal Rush sit 2nd on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.11.

  A win moves us above Coastal Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee United SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC – Tennessee United SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 12%
2. 2nd 18%
3. 3rd 20%
4. 4th 22%
5. 5th 22%
6. 6th 5%
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).