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Germantown Legends

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU14 · 10 teams · Germantown Legends (all teams)

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4th
4-2-3 record · 9 played
1.56 points per game
-7 goal diff · 16–23
LDWWWlast 5
17% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6
+0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Germantown Legends
4th · 1.56 PPG
vs
Alabama FC
9th · 0.78 PPG

Stateline Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.4 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so farGermantown LegendsAlabama FC
Position4th9th
Record (W-D-L)4-2-31-4-4
Points per game1.560.78
Goals for / game1.81.0
Goals against / game2.62.1
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)W W W D LD L L D D
Biggest win4–1 vs Tennessee United SC3–2 vs FC Alliance TN
Worst loss0–8 vs Louisiana Fire SC1–6 at Tennessee SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.55-0.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.03+0.18

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 0–0 at Alabama FC (D)

Common opponents: Mississippi Rush United — we 0–0; they 0–2. Louisiana Fire SC — we 0–8; they 1–3. Tennessee United SC — we 4–1; they 2–4. Tennessee SC — we 1–8; they 1–6. Lobos Rush — we 1–3; they 0–0. Coastal Rush — we 4–1; they 1–1. FC Alliance TN — we 3–1; they 3–2. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 3–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Alabama FC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 3 of 9.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Mississippi Rush United, 0–8 vs Louisiana Fire SC, 0–0 at Alabama FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 22% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Germantown Legends – Alabama FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.50 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Win
1.70 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.40 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
17% top 4
83% below the top 4
5.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 37%
  6. 6th 26%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.52 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Louisiana Fire SC 3.00 (+1.44) 1st (2.50) 67 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
2 Tennessee SC 2.71 (+1.15) 2nd (2.44) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
3 Mississippi Rush United 2.67 (+1.11) 3rd (2.12) 59 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection

How the results connect

57 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Germantown Legends to Alabama FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

31 favour us
4 even
22 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 3–1 2–3 3–1 1–1 1–3 0–0 1–8 6–1 0–0 2–0 4–1 1–1 4–1 4–2 0–8 3–1 2–6 1–2 0–3 Germantown Legends 4th FC Alliance TN 6th Chattanooga Red Wol… 10th Lobos Rush 7th Tennessee SC 2nd Mississippi Rush Un… 3rd Coastal Rush 5th Tennessee United SC 8th Louisiana Fire SC 1st Alabama FC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 7th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM		 Alabama FC
9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10		 Home
Stateline Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.74 1.57 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Coastal Rush
5th · 4-1-4 · GD +2		 Home
Stateline Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.17 1.54 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 Louisiana Fire SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.17 1.42 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.47 1.35 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Lobos Rush
7th · 2-2-5 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.41 1.35 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–2 1.22 1.35 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23		 Away far trip
CSLA		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.90 1.38 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Bethesda Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.19 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP)		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.32 1.31 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Lobos Rush
7th · 2-2-5 · GD -8		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.68 1.33 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.19 1.27 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.32 1.28 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Louisiana Fire SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.30 1.23 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 0–2 0.64 1.21 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.90 1.23 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–2 1.22 1.23 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Alabama FC
9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.74 1.25 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Coastal Rush
5th · 4-1-4 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.17 1.25 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Louisiana Fire SC 6600 326+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.70 -0.05 100% 1.5
2 Tennessee SC 7610 294+25 192.71 WDWWW -0.70 +0.03 100% 1.7
3 Mississippi Rush United 6510 121+11 162.67 WWWWW -0.70 +0.16 100% 2.8
4 Germantown Legends 9423 1623-7 141.56 LDWWW +0.03 +0.15 17% 5.6
5 Coastal Rush 9414 2018+2 131.44 WLLWD +0.06 +0.07 70% 4.4
6 FC Alliance TN 10415 2129-8 131.30 DWWLW -0.03 +0.25 10% 6.0
7 Lobos Rush 9225 1018-8 80.89 WLDDL +0.05 +0.16 1% 7.6
8 Tennessee United SC 7205 1624-8 60.86 LWLWL -0.33 +0.34 1% 7.5
9 Alabama FC 9144 919-10 70.78 DDLLD +0.18 +0.17 1% 8.0
10 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10028 1033-23 20.20 LLLDL +0.18 +0.32 0% 9.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.