TableChase Clubs

Coastal Rush

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU14 · 10 teams · Coastal Rush (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
5th
4-1-4 record · 9 played
1.44 points per game
+2 goal diff · 20–18
WLLWDlast 5
71% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

Open the match preview →

Coastal Rush
5th · 1.44 PPG
at
Lobos Rush
7th · 0.89 PPG

Progress Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.4 against · 1.75 expected points)

Season so farCoastal RushLobos Rush
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-42-2-5
Points per game1.440.89
Goals for / game2.21.1
Goals against / game2.02.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless15
Form (recent first)D W L L WL D D L W
Biggest win5–0 vs FC Alliance TN3–1 vs Tennessee United SC
Worst loss0–3 at Mississippi Rush United0–3 vs Tennessee SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.14-0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+0.05

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 3–0 vs Lobos Rush (W)

Common opponents: FC Alliance TN — we 5–0; they 2–5. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 2–1; they 2–2. Mississippi Rush United — we 0–3; they 0–1. Louisiana Fire SC — we 2–4; they 0–2. Germantown Legends — we 1–4; they 3–1. Tennessee SC — we 1–2; they 0–3. Tennessee United SC — we 5–3; they 3–1. Alabama FC — we 1–1; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Mississippi Rush United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 22% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Progress Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Germantown Legends sit 4th on 1.56 PPG; we are on 1.44.

    A point moves us above Germantown Legends on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lobos Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Coastal Rush – Lobos Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.40 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.60 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.30 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
71% top 4
29% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 69%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.48 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Louisiana Fire SC 3.00 (+1.56) 1st (2.50) 68 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Tennessee SC 2.71 (+1.27) 2nd (2.44) 61 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection
3 Mississippi Rush United 2.67 (+1.23) 3rd (2.12) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
4 Germantown Legends 1.56 (+0.12) 5th (1.25) A point next game

How the results connect

57 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Coastal Rush to Lobos Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

29 favour us
8 even
20 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–1 0–0 5–3 1–3 2–4 2–0 2–1 2–2 1–2 3–0 0–3 1–0 1–4 1–3 5–0 5–2 1–1 1–3 Coastal Rush 5th Alabama FC 9th Tennessee United SC 8th Louisiana Fire SC 1st Chattanooga Red Wol… 10th Tennessee SC 2nd Mississippi Rush Un… 3rd Germantown Legends 4th FC Alliance TN 6th Lobos Rush 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 8th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.89 1.39 Upside
Sun Oct 11
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Louisiana Fire SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.54 1.31 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Lobos Rush
7th · 2-2-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Progress Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.75 1.35 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Germantown Legends
4th · 4-2-3 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Stateline Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.64 1.37 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM		 Alabama FC
9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.81 1.40 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.53 1.34 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.07 1.39 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–2 1.63 1.40 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.23 1.45 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
03:00 PM		 Alabama FC
9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.81 1.47 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
03:00 PM		 Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 0–2 0.69 1.43 Upside
Sun Mar 7
09:00 AM		 Louisiana Fire SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.34 1.38 Upside
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8		 Home
Mobile County Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.95 1.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23		 Home
Mobile County Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.45 1.45 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.07 1.48 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.53 1.44 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 Lobos Rush
7th · 2-2-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Progress Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.75 1.45 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Germantown Legends
4th · 4-2-3 · GD -7		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.64 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Louisiana Fire SC 6600 326+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.70 -0.05 100% 1.5
2 Tennessee SC 7610 294+25 192.71 WDWWW -0.70 +0.03 100% 1.7
3 Mississippi Rush United 6510 121+11 162.67 WWWWW -0.70 +0.16 100% 2.8
4 Germantown Legends 9423 1623-7 141.56 LDWWW +0.03 +0.15 16% 5.6
5 Coastal Rush 9414 2018+2 131.44 WLLWD +0.06 +0.07 71% 4.4
6 FC Alliance TN 10415 2129-8 131.30 DWWLW -0.03 +0.25 10% 6.0
7 Lobos Rush 9225 1018-8 80.89 WLDDL +0.05 +0.16 2% 7.6
8 Tennessee United SC 7205 1624-8 60.86 LWLWL -0.33 +0.34 2% 7.5
9 Alabama FC 9144 919-10 70.78 DDLLD +0.18 +0.17 1% 7.9
10 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10028 1033-23 20.20 LLLDL +0.18 +0.32 0% 9.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.