Tennessee SC

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU14 · 10 teams · Tennessee SC (all teams)

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2nd

6-1-0 record · 7 played

2.71 points per game

+25 goal diff · 29–4

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Tennessee SC
2nd · 2.71 PPG

Tennessee United SC
8th · 0.86 PPG

Drakes Creek Park (DCP), Field 10 ↗ far trip

88%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.6 for, 1.3 against · 2.71 expected points)

Season so far	Tennessee SC	Tennessee United SC
Position	2nd	8th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-0	2-0-5
Points per game	2.71	0.86
Goals for / game	4.1	2.3
Goals against / game	0.6	3.4
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	L W L W L
Biggest win	8–1 at Germantown Legends	6–2 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Worst loss	—	0–4 at Tennessee SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.18	-0.83
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.70	-0.33

Already played this season: Sat Aug 22 4–0 vs Tennessee United SC (W)

Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 3–0; they 1–3. Germantown Legends — we 8–1; they 1–4. FC Alliance TN — we 1–1; they 1–4. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 5–0; they 6–2. Coastal Rush — we 2–1; they 3–5. Alabama FC — we 6–1; they 4–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Tennessee United SC concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–4 at Tennessee SC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Drakes Creek Park (DCP).
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee United SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC – Tennessee United SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.75 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.75 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.38 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

38% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 38%
2nd 53%
3rd 9%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.93 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Louisiana Fire SC	3.00 (+0.29)	1st (2.50)	62 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection

How the results connect

39 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Tennessee SC to Tennessee United SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

32 favour us

7 favour them

+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 9th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Tennessee United SC 8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8	Away far trip Drakes Creek Park (DCP)	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	4–1	2.71	2.71	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23	Home Richard Siegel Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.90	2.73	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 08:00 AM	FC Alliance TN 6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8	Home Bethesda Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.77	2.74	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	Louisiana Fire SC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26	Away far trip Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.37	2.61	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.55	2.53	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM	Coastal Rush 5th · 4-1-4 · GD +2	Away far trip Ashton Brosnaham	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.33	2.51	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	Alabama FC 9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10	Away far trip Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–0	2.60	2.52	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM	Germantown Legends 4th · 4-2-3 · GD -7	Home Bethesda Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–0	2.73	2.53	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM	Lobos Rush 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -8	Home Bethesda Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.72	2.54	Bank it
Sat Feb 20 TBD	Tennessee United SC 8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	5–1	2.83	2.56	Bank it
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Louisiana Fire SC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–2	1.69	2.51	Swing game
Sun Feb 28 TBD	Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–0	1.78	2.47	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Germantown Legends 4th · 4-2-3 · GD -7	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–0	2.73	2.49	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Lobos Rush 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -8	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.72	2.50	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM	Alabama FC 9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10	Away far trip Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–0	2.60	2.50	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM	Coastal Rush 5th · 4-1-4 · GD +2	Away far trip Ashton Brosnaham	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.33	2.49	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.90	2.51	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	FC Alliance TN 6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.77	2.52	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM	Louisiana Fire SC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26	Away far trip Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.37	2.48	Upside
Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM	Mississippi Rush United 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.55	2.44	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Louisiana Fire SC

+26

3.00

WWWWW

-0.70

-0.05

100%

1.5

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	10–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	8–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sun Oct 11 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Alabama FC (9th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	5–0	94%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	6–1	94%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	5–0	94%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	6–1	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC

+25

2.71

WDWWW

-0.70

+0.03

100%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	8–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee United SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC (9th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Alabama FC (9th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

+11

2.67

WWWWW

-0.70

+0.16

100%

2.8

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Alabama FC (9th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Germantown Legends

-7

1.56

LDWWW

+0.03

+0.15

16%

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC (9th)	0–0
L	Wed Sep 9	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–8
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–8
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 31 at Louisiana Fire SC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Rush

1.44

WLLWD

+0.06

+0.07

71%

4.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	5–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 11 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Lobos Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Alabama FC (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Alabama FC (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun May 2	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

-8

1.30

DWWLW

-0.03

+0.25

10%

6.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	5–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	3–10
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC (9th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee United SC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–3	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–3	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

-8

0.89

WLDDL

+0.05

+0.16

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	2–5
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	0–3
W	Wed Sep 9	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mississippi Rush United See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee United SC

-8

0.86

LWLWL

-0.33

+0.34

7.5

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	6–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	3–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–6	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC (9th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Alabama FC (9th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	3–2	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–6	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC

-10

0.78

DDLLD

+0.18

+0.17

7.9

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 at Lobos Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat May 1	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

-23

0.20

LLLDL

+0.18

+0.32

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lobos Rush (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee SC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	FC Alliance TN (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Alabama FC (9th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Coastal Rush (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Mississippi Rush United (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Tennessee SC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Germantown Legends (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lobos Rush (7th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.