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Lobos Rush

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU14 · 10 teams · Lobos Rush (all teams)

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7th
2-2-5 record · 9 played
0.89 points per game
-8 goal diff · 10–18
WLDDLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.6
+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Lobos Rush
7th · 0.89 PPG
vs
Coastal Rush
5th · 1.44 PPG

Progress Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.0 against · 1.03 expected points)

Season so farLobos RushCoastal Rush
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-54-1-4
Points per game0.891.44
Goals for / game1.12.2
Goals against / game2.02.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless51
Form (recent first)L D D L WD W L L W
Biggest win3–1 vs Tennessee United SC5–0 vs FC Alliance TN
Worst loss0–3 vs Tennessee SC0–3 at Mississippi Rush United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.69+0.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.05+0.06

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 0–3 at Coastal Rush (L)

Common opponents: Louisiana Fire SC — we 0–2; they 2–4. Mississippi Rush United — we 0–1; they 0–3. Tennessee SC — we 0–3; they 1–2. Tennessee United SC — we 3–1; they 5–3. Germantown Legends — we 3–1; they 1–4. Alabama FC — we 0–0; they 1–1. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 2–2; they 2–1. FC Alliance TN — we 2–5; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–2 vs Louisiana Fire SC, 0–1 vs Mississippi Rush United, 0–3 vs Tennessee SC, 0–3 at Coastal Rush, 0–0 at Alabama FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Coastal Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lobos Rush – Coastal Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.90 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
1.10 PPG		 7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 8th▼ down 1
Draw
0.90 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
0.80 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 23%
  8. 8th 29%
  9. 9th 28%
  10. 10th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.30 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Louisiana Fire SC 3.00 (+2.11) 1st (2.50) 73 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Tennessee SC 2.71 (+1.82) 2nd (2.44) 66 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Mississippi Rush United 2.67 (+1.78) 3rd (2.12) 65 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
4 Germantown Legends 1.56 (+0.67) 5th (1.25) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Coastal Rush 1.44 (+0.55) 4th (1.46) 31 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 FC Alliance TN 1.30 (+0.41) 6th (1.19) 28 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection

How the results connect

57 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Lobos Rush to Coastal Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
8 even
29 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 0–0 1–1 3–1 3–5 0–2 4–2 2–2 1–2 0–3 2–1 0–1 3–0 3–1 4–1 2–5 0–5 1–1 1–4 1–3 Lobos Rush 7th Alabama FC 9th Tennessee United SC 8th Louisiana Fire SC 1st Chattanooga Red Wol… 10th Tennessee SC 2nd Mississippi Rush Un… 3rd Germantown Legends 4th FC Alliance TN 6th Coastal Rush 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 5th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Coastal Rush
5th · 4-1-4 · GD +2		 Home
Progress Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.03 0.90 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Alabama FC
9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10		 Home
Progress Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.55 0.96 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.46 0.92 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Louisiana Fire SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.17 0.86 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Germantown Legends
4th · 4-2-3 · GD -7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.36 0.90 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23		 Away far trip
CSLA		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 0.95 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 0.96 Upside
Sat Nov 21
03:00 PM		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP)		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.14 0.97 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Bethesda Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.20 0.93 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Germantown Legends
4th · 4-2-3 · GD -7		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.10 0.93 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 2-0-5 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.14 0.94 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.20 0.91 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Mississippi Rush United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–1 0.60 0.90 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Louisiana Fire SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–3 0.28 0.87 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
6th · 4-1-5 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-2-8 · GD -23		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 0.91 Swing game
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 Coastal Rush
5th · 4-1-4 · GD +2		 Home
Progress Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.03 0.91 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Alabama FC
9th · 1-4-4 · GD -10		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.55 0.94 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Louisiana Fire SC 6600 326+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.70 -0.05 100% 1.5
2 Tennessee SC 7610 294+25 192.71 WDWWW -0.70 +0.03 100% 1.7
3 Mississippi Rush United 6510 121+11 162.67 WWWWW -0.70 +0.16 100% 2.8
4 Germantown Legends 9423 1623-7 141.56 LDWWW +0.03 +0.15 15% 5.6
5 Coastal Rush 9414 2018+2 131.44 WLLWD +0.06 +0.07 70% 4.4
6 FC Alliance TN 10415 2129-8 131.30 DWWLW -0.03 +0.25 11% 6.0
7 Lobos Rush 9225 1018-8 80.89 WLDDL +0.05 +0.16 1% 7.6
8 Tennessee United SC 7205 1624-8 60.86 LWLWL -0.33 +0.34 2% 7.5
9 Alabama FC 9144 919-10 70.78 DDLLD +0.18 +0.17 1% 7.9
10 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10028 1033-23 20.20 LLLDL +0.18 +0.32 0% 9.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.