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Germantown Legends

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Germantown Legends (all teams)

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8th
2-0-7 record · 9 played
0.67 points per game
-17 goal diff · 17–34
LLLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Germantown Legends
8th · 0.67 PPG
vs
Alabama FC
1st · 2.78 PPG

Stateline Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.3 for, 5.1 against · 0.16 expected points)

Season so farGermantown LegendsAlabama FC
Position8th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-78-1-0
Points per game0.672.78
Goals for / game1.94.4
Goals against / game3.81.0
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W L L LW D W W W
Biggest win4–0 vs FC Alliance TN14–1 vs FC Alliance TN
Worst loss0–7 vs Tennessee SC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.34+2.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.01-0.08

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 1–4 at Alabama FC (L)

Common opponents: Mississippi Rush United — we 1–3; they 3–0. Louisiana Fire SC — we 1–4; they 2–1. Tennessee United SC — we 2–5; they 1–0. Tennessee SC — we 0–7; they 2–2. Lobos Rush — we 3–4; they 2–1. Coastal Rush — we 1–4; they 7–3. FC Alliance TN — we 4–0; they 14–1. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 4–3; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Alabama FC score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Alabama FC concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 vs Tennessee SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (5%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Alabama FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Germantown Legends – Alabama FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Win
0.90 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Draw
0.70 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Loss
0.60 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 89%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Alabama FC 2.78 (+2.11) 1st (2.46) 70 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Tennessee SC 2.71 (+2.04) 2nd (2.38) 68 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Coastal Rush 2.33 (+1.66) 3rd (2.11) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
4 Louisiana Fire SC 2.00 (+1.33) 4th (1.95) 48 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
5 Lobos Rush 1.67 (+1.00) 5th (1.81) 40 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
6 Mississippi Rush United 1.50 (+0.83) 6th (1.41) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 Tennessee United SC 1.29 (+0.62) 7th (1.09) 29 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

55 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Germantown Legends to Alabama FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
50 favour them
-5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–4 1–2 4–3 0–5 2–5 0–1 1–4 1–2 1–3 0–3 1–4 3–7 0–7 2–2 4–0 1–14 4–2 8–1 0–2 Germantown Legends 8th Lobos Rush 5th Chattanooga Red Wol… 10th Tennessee United SC 7th Louisiana Fire SC 4th Mississippi Rush Un… 6th Coastal Rush 3rd Tennessee SC 2nd FC Alliance TN 9th Alabama FC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 3rd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 Alabama FC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +31		 Home
Stateline Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.16 0.62 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Coastal Rush
3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +25		 Home
Stateline Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.27 0.58 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Louisiana Fire SC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 0.55 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Mississippi Rush United
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.62 0.56 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Lobos Rush
5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.25 0.54 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51		 Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 4–1 2.43 0.66 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-0-9 · GD -39		 Away far trip
CSLA		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.15 0.76 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Away far trip
Bethesda Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP)		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.04 0.74 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Lobos Rush
5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.40 0.72 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.69 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 Tennessee United SC
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.04 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Louisiana Fire SC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.36 0.69 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mississippi Rush United
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-0-9 · GD -39		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.15 0.76 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 4–1 2.43 0.82 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 Alabama FC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +31		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.16 0.80 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Coastal Rush
3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +25		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.27 0.78 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Alabama FC 9810 409+31 252.78 WWWDW -0.08 -0.22 100% 1.5
2 Tennessee SC 7610 273+24 192.71 WWWWD -0.46 -0.10 100% 1.9
3 Coastal Rush 9702 3914+25 212.33 WWLWL -0.01 -0.16 93% 3.2
4 Louisiana Fire SC 6402 216+15 122.00 WLLWW -0.58 -0.02 72% 4.0
5 Lobos Rush 9504 2812+16 151.67 WLLWW -0.28 -0.10 34% 4.6
6 Mississippi Rush United 6303 118+3 91.50 LLLWW -0.58 +0.15 1% 6.0
7 Tennessee United SC 7304 1017-7 91.29 LWWLL -0.11 +0.19 0% 7.0
8 Germantown Legends 9207 1734-17 60.67 LLLWW +0.01 +0.19 0% 7.9
9 FC Alliance TN 9108 657-51 30.33 LLLLL +0.45 +0.47 0% 9.5
10 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 9009 746-39 00.00 LLLLL +0.36 +0.38 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.