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Coastal Rush

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Coastal Rush (all teams)

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3rd
7-0-2 record · 9 played
2.33 points per game
+25 goal diff · 39–14
WWLWLlast 5
94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.1
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Coastal Rush
3rd · 2.33 PPG
at
Lobos Rush
5th · 1.67 PPG

Progress Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.4 against · 1.39 expected points)

Season so farCoastal RushLobos Rush
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)7-0-25-0-4
Points per game2.331.67
Goals for / game4.33.1
Goals against / game1.61.3
Clean sheets24
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W L W WW W L L W
Biggest win11–0 vs FC Alliance TN8–0 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Worst loss3–7 vs Alabama FC0–3 vs Tennessee SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.87+1.26
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01-0.28

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 2–1 vs Lobos Rush (W)

Common opponents: FC Alliance TN — we 11–0; they 7–0. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 8–1; they 8–0. Mississippi Rush United — we 2–0; they 2–0. Louisiana Fire SC — we 2–1; they 1–2. Germantown Legends — we 4–1; they 4–3. Tennessee SC — we 0–2; they 0–3. Tennessee United SC — we 7–1; they 4–0. Alabama FC — we 3–7; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Tennessee SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Progress Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lobos Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Coastal Rush – Lobos Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.20 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.40 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.10 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
94% top 4
6% below the top 4
3.1 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 53%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.78 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Alabama FC 2.78 (+0.45) 1st (2.46) 55 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 Tennessee SC 2.71 (+0.38) 2nd (2.38) 53 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection

How the results connect

55 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Coastal Rush to Lobos Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

29 favour us
5 even
21 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–0 0–2 0–2 3–0 8–1 0–8 7–1 0–4 4–1 3–4 2–1 2–1 3–7 2–1 11–0 0–7 2–0 2–1 4–0 Coastal Rush 3rd Mississippi Rush Un… 6th Tennessee SC 2nd Chattanooga Red Wol… 10th Tennessee United SC 7th Germantown Legends 8th Louisiana Fire SC 4th Alabama FC 1st FC Alliance TN 9th Lobos Rush 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 9th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
01:00 PM
no score posted		 Mississippi Rush United
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.19 2.32 Swing game
Sun Oct 11
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Louisiana Fire SC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.61 2.25 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Lobos Rush
5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16		 Away far trip
Progress Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.39 2.18 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Germantown Legends
8th · 2-0-7 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Stateline Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.66 2.22 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Alabama FC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +31		 Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.87 2.12 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.08 2.05 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–1 2.61 2.09 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51		 Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–0 2.97 2.14 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-0-9 · GD -39		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–1 2.92 2.18 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
01:00 PM		 Alabama FC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +31		 Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.87 2.11 Upside
Sat Mar 6
01:00 PM		 Mississippi Rush United
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.92 2.10 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
09:00 AM		 Louisiana Fire SC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.29 2.07 Upside
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51		 Home
Mobile County Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–0 2.98 2.11 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0-0-9 · GD -39		 Home
Mobile County Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–0 2.96 2.14 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Tennessee United SC
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–1 2.61 2.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Home
Ashton Brosnaham		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.08 2.12 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 Lobos Rush
5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16		 Away far trip
Progress Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.39 2.09 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Germantown Legends
8th · 2-0-7 · GD -17		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.66 2.11 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Alabama FC 9810 409+31 252.78 WWWDW -0.08 -0.22 100% 1.5
2 Tennessee SC 7610 273+24 192.71 WWWWD -0.46 -0.10 99% 1.9
3 Coastal Rush 9702 3914+25 212.33 WWLWL -0.01 -0.16 94% 3.1
4 Louisiana Fire SC 6402 216+15 122.00 WLLWW -0.58 -0.02 71% 4.0
5 Lobos Rush 9504 2812+16 151.67 WLLWW -0.28 -0.10 35% 4.6
6 Mississippi Rush United 6303 118+3 91.50 LLLWW -0.58 +0.15 1% 6.0
7 Tennessee United SC 7304 1017-7 91.29 LWWLL -0.11 +0.19 0% 7.0
8 Germantown Legends 9207 1734-17 60.67 LLLWW +0.01 +0.19 0% 7.9
9 FC Alliance TN 9108 657-51 30.33 LLLLL +0.45 +0.47 0% 9.5
10 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 9009 746-39 00.00 LLLLL +0.36 +0.38 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.