Alabama FC
ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Stateline Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.1 for, 1.3 against · 2.79 expected points)
| Season so far | Alabama FC | Germantown Legends |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-1-0 | 2-0-7 |
| Points per game | 2.78 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | W W L L L |
| Biggest win | 14–1 vs FC Alliance TN | 4–0 vs FC Alliance TN |
| Worst loss | — | 0–7 vs Tennessee SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.40 | -1.34 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.08 | +0.01 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 4–1 vs Germantown Legends (W)
Common opponents: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 5–0; they 4–3. FC Alliance TN — we 14–1; they 4–0. Louisiana Fire SC — we 2–1; they 1–4. Mississippi Rush United — we 3–0; they 1–3. Lobos Rush — we 2–1; they 3–4. Tennessee United SC — we 1–0; they 2–5. Tennessee SC — we 2–2; they 0–7. Coastal Rush — we 7–3; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Germantown Legends concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–7 vs Tennessee SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Stateline Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Germantown Legends game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC – Germantown Legends) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.80 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.80 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 62%
- 2nd 31%
- 3rd 7%
- 4th 1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
55 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Alabama FC to Germantown Legends through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 11:00 AM no score posted |
Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 2.69 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 8th · 2-0-7 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Stateline Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.79 | 2.70 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Progress Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 2.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Coastal Rush 3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +25 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.97 | 2.57 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM |
Tennessee United SC 7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–0 | 2.73 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Tennessee SC 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 2.51 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10th · 0-0-9 · GD -39 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 11:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51 |
Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 01:00 PM |
Coastal Rush 3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +25 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.97 | 2.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM |
Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 2.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 2.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10th · 0-0-9 · GD -39 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Tennessee SC 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 2.47 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Tennessee United SC 7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–0 | 2.73 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–1 | 2.40 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Germantown Legends 8th · 2-0-7 · GD -17 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.79 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Lobos Rush 5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 2.46 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Alabama FC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 9 | +31 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWDW | -0.08 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 at Lobos Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Tennessee SC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWD | -0.46 | -0.10 | 99% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee United SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Coastal Rush | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 14 | +25 | 21 | 2.33 | WWLWL | -0.01 | -0.16 | 94% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 11 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Lobos Rush See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Louisiana Fire SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 12 | 2.00 | WLLWW | -0.58 | -0.02 | 71% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sun Oct 11 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 15 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.28 | -0.10 | 35% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mississippi Rush United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Mississippi Rush United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | LLLWW | -0.58 | +0.15 | 1% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Tennessee United SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 | 1.29 | LWWLL | -0.11 | +0.19 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Germantown Legends | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 6 | 0.67 | LLLWW | +0.01 | +0.19 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 31 at Louisiana Fire SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Alliance TN | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 57 | -51 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLLL | +0.45 | +0.47 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee United SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Chattanooga Red Wolves SC | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 46 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.36 | +0.38 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.