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Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU13 · 10 teams · Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (all teams)

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10th
0-0-9 record · 9 played
0.00 points per game
-39 goal diff · 7–46
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.5
+0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
10th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Mississippi Rush United
6th · 1.50 PPG

Ooltewah High School, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.2 against · 0.34 expected points)

Season so farChattanooga Red Wolves SCMississippi Rush United
Position10th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-93-0-3
Points per game0.001.50
Goals for / game0.81.8
Goals against / game5.11.3
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless53
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W L L L
Biggest win—4–0 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Worst loss0–8 at Lobos Rush0–3 vs Alabama FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.00+0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.36-0.58

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 0–4 at Mississippi Rush United (L)

Common opponents: Alabama FC — we 0–5; they 0–3. Coastal Rush — we 1–8; they 0–2. FC Alliance TN — we 2–4; they 4–0. Lobos Rush — we 0–8; they 0–2. Germantown Legends — we 3–4; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–5 at Alabama FC, 0–4 at Mississippi Rush United, 0–6 at Louisiana Fire SC, 0–2 vs Tennessee United SC, 0–8 at Lobos Rush.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mississippi Rush United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Chattanooga Red Wolves SC – Mississippi Rush United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
0.30 PPG		 10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
0.10 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 46%
  10. 10th 53%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Alabama FC 2.78 (+2.78) 1st (2.46) 76 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 67 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Tennessee SC 2.71 (+2.71) 2nd (2.38) 74 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 65 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Coastal Rush 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (2.11) 63 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Louisiana Fire SC 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.95) 54 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection
5 Lobos Rush 1.67 (+1.67) 5th (1.81) 46 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
6 Mississippi Rush United 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.41) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
7 Tennessee United SC 1.29 (+1.29) 7th (1.09) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
8 Germantown Legends 0.67 (+0.67) 8th (0.78) 19 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 FC Alliance TN 0.33 (+0.33) 9th (0.28) 9 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection

How the results connect

41 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Chattanooga Red Wolves SC to Mississippi Rush United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
4 even
33 favour them
-3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 0–5 3–0 3–4 1–3 1–8 2–0 0–8 2–0 2–4 0–4 3–4 1–5 2–0 0–2 0–1 11–0 1–4 4–0 Chattanooga Red Wol… 10th Alabama FC 1st Germantown Legends 8th Coastal Rush 3rd Lobos Rush 5th FC Alliance TN 9th Tennessee SC 2nd Tennessee United SC 7th Mississippi Rush Un… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.38 · 2nd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 Mississippi Rush United
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
Ooltewah High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.34 0.03 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Louisiana Fire SC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
Camp Jordan Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.04 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Away far trip
Richard Siegel Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.04 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP)		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 0.07 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.55 0.17 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
10:00 AM		 Lobos Rush
5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16		 Home
CSLA		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.11 0.17 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Germantown Legends
8th · 2-0-7 · GD -17		 Home
CSLA		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.70 0.20 Upside
Sat Dec 5
TBD		 Alabama FC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +31		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.03 0.19 Upside
Sun Dec 6
TBD		 Coastal Rush
3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +25		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.06 0.19 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
9th · 1-0-8 · GD -51		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.55 0.26 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM		 Alabama FC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +31		 Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.01 0.25 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 Coastal Rush
3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Mobile County Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.03 0.24 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Mississippi Rush United
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.34 0.24 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Louisiana Fire SC
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.23 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Tennessee SC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.22 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Tennessee United SC
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 0.23 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Germantown Legends
8th · 2-0-7 · GD -17		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.70 0.25 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Lobos Rush
5th · 5-0-4 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.11 0.25 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Alabama FC 9810 409+31 252.78 WWWDW -0.08 -0.22 100% 1.5
2 Tennessee SC 7610 273+24 192.71 WWWWD -0.46 -0.10 100% 1.9
3 Coastal Rush 9702 3914+25 212.33 WWLWL -0.01 -0.16 94% 3.1
4 Louisiana Fire SC 6402 216+15 122.00 WLLWW -0.58 -0.02 72% 4.0
5 Lobos Rush 9504 2812+16 151.67 WLLWW -0.28 -0.10 33% 4.6
6 Mississippi Rush United 6303 118+3 91.50 LLLWW -0.58 +0.15 1% 6.0
7 Tennessee United SC 7304 1017-7 91.29 LWWLL -0.11 +0.19 0% 7.0
8 Germantown Legends 9207 1734-17 60.67 LLLWW +0.01 +0.19 0% 7.9
9 FC Alliance TN 9108 657-51 30.33 LLLLL +0.45 +0.47 0% 9.5
10 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 9009 746-39 00.00 LLLLL +0.36 +0.38 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.