OK Energy FC

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU18/19 · 6 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)

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2nd

4-0-2 record · 6 played

2.00 points per game

-1 goal diff · 14–15

LWWWLlast 5

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6

-0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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OK Energy FC
2nd · 2.00 PPG

Sporting Nebraska FC
4th · 1.29 PPG

North Oklahoma City FC, NOKC Red 2 ↗

41% 22% 37%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.7 against · 1.44 expected points)

Season so far	OK Energy FC	Sporting Nebraska FC
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-2	2-3-2
Points per game	2.00	1.29
Goals for / game	2.3	1.1
Goals against / game	2.5	1.1
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L W W W L	W D D L W
Biggest win	5–2 at Arkansas Comets FC	2–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC
Worst loss	0–6 at Sporting Iowa Central	0–1 at VSA Rush
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.12	+0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.14	+0.10

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 2–1 at Sporting Nebraska FC (W)

Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 3–2, 5–2; they 2–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 1–0. VSA Rush — we 3–2; they 0–1, 1–1. Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–6; they 1–1, 2–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Sporting Iowa Central.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Sporting Iowa Central sit 1st on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A point moves us above Sporting Iowa Central on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Nebraska FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC – Sporting Nebraska FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.86 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.14 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 1.86 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 1.71 PPG	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

2.6 average finish

1st 7%
2nd 42%
3rd 33%
4th 16%
5th 2%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sporting Iowa Central	2.14 (+0.14)	1st (2.22)	A point next game

How the results connect

37 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link OK Energy FC to Sporting Nebraska FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

4 even

20 favour them

-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Sporting Nebraska FC 4th · 2-3-2 · GD +0	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.44	1.92	Upside
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Gretna Elite Academy 3rd · 3-2-2 · GD +4	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–2	1.20	1.83	Upside
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	Sporting Iowa Central 1st · 4-3-0 · GD +13	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.63	1.70	Upside
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	VSA Rush 5th · 1-3-3 · GD -5	Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	1.71	Swing game
Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM	Kansas Rush	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–2	1.49	1.69	Swing game
Sun Dec 20 11:00 AM	FC Wichita	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–2	1.49	1.68	Swing game
Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM	Union KC Soccer Club	Home North Oklahoma City FC	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–2	1.49	1.66	Swing game
Sun Feb 7 11:00 AM	Kansas City Athletics	Home Edmond Soccer Club	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–2	1.49	1.65	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sporting Iowa Central

+13

2.14

WDDWW

-0.15

-0.24

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–0	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC

-1

2.00

LWWWL

-0.14

+0.14

98%

2.6

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	VSA Rush (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

1.57

WWDWL

+0.04

-0.24

99%

2.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Nebraska FC

1.29

WLDDW

+0.10

-0.16

93%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VSA Rush (5th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VSA Rush

-5

0.86

LDLLD

+0.10

+0.00

5.0

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1
L	Fri Sep 25	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-11

0.17

LLLLD

+0.16

+0.14

5.9

D	Sun Oct 11	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.