VSA Rush
ECNL Boys · Heartland BU18/19 · 6 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.5 against · 1.45 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA Rush | Arkansas Comets FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-3-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 0.86 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L D L | D L L L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs Sporting Nebraska FC | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Gretna Elite Academy | 2–6 at Gretna Elite Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.49 | -1.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | +0.16 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 1–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC (D)
Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–1, 0–3; they 2–6. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 1–0, 1–1; they 1–2. Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–2; they 0–2. OK Energy FC — we 2–3; they 2–3, 2–5.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Arkansas Comets FC concede 3.2/game; worst result 2–6 at Gretna Elite Academy.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Sporting Iowa Central, 0–3 at Gretna Elite Academy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 40%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.88 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.13 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 0.88 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 6%
- 5th 84%
- 6th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.93 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Iowa Central | 2.14 (+1.28) | 1st (2.22) | 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | OK Energy FC | 2.00 (+1.14) | 2nd (1.65) | 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 3 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.57 (+0.71) | 3rd (1.64) | 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 1.29 (+0.43) | 4th (1.37) | 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
37 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link VSA Rush to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC 6th · 0-1-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
OK Energy FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa Central 1st · 4-3-0 · GD +13 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–1 | 0.56 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 05:00 PM |
Kansas City Athletics |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 09:00 PM |
FC Wichita |
Home MidAmerican Energy Company RecPlex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 01:00 PM |
Kansas Rush |
Home MidAmerican Energy Company RecPlex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 0.97 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sporting Iowa Central | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 15 | 2.14 | WDDWW | -0.15 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | OK Energy FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.14 | +0.14 | 99% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Gretna Elite Academy | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | WWDWL | +0.04 | -0.24 | 100% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | WLDDW | +0.10 | -0.16 | 95% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | VSA Rush | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 | 0.86 | LDLLD | +0.10 | +0.00 | 7% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Comets FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.16 | +0.14 | 1% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.