Sporting Iowa Central

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU18/19 · 6 teams · Sporting Iowa Central (all teams)

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1st

4-3-0 record · 7 played

2.14 points per game

+13 goal diff · 17–4

WDDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM

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Sporting Iowa Central
1st · 2.14 PPG

OK Energy FC
2nd · 2.00 PPG

Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, B&L Field 2 ↗ far trip

68% 16% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.21 expected points)

Season so far	Sporting Iowa Central	OK Energy FC
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	4-3-0	4-0-2
Points per game	2.14	2.00
Goals for / game	2.4	2.3
Goals against / game	0.6	2.5
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W D D W	L W W W L
Biggest win	6–0 vs OK Energy FC	5–2 at Arkansas Comets FC
Worst loss	—	0–6 at Sporting Iowa Central
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.22	-0.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.15	-0.14

Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 6–0 vs OK Energy FC (W)

Common opponents: Sporting Nebraska FC — we 1–1, 2–2; they 2–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 3–0, 1–1; they 1–2. VSA Rush — we 2–0; they 3–2. Arkansas Comets FC — we 2–0; they 3–2, 5–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
OK Energy FC score 2.3/game — well above the league's 1.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
They leak goals — be greedy
OK Energy FC concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–6 at Sporting Iowa Central.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 16% / loss 15%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Iowa Central – OK Energy FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.25 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.25 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 1.88 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

93% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 93%
2nd 7%
3rd 1%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

37 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting Iowa Central to OK Energy FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us

4 even

13 favour them

+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	OK Energy FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD -1	Away far trip Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.21	2.15	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Arkansas Comets FC 6th · 0-1-5 · GD -11	Away far trip Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–0	2.55	2.20	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	VSA Rush 5th · 1-3-3 · GD -5	Away far trip VSA Timberline Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	1–0	2.24	2.20	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Union KC Soccer Club	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.26	2.21	Swing game
Sun Dec 13 TBD	Kansas City Athletics	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.26	2.21	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 TBD	Kansas Rush	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.26	2.22	Swing game
Sun Jan 17 TBD	FC Wichita	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.26	2.22	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sporting Iowa Central

+13

2.14

WDDWW

-0.15

-0.24

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–0	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC

-1

2.00

LWWWL

-0.14

+0.14

98%

2.7

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	VSA Rush (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

1.57

WWDWL

+0.04

-0.24

99%

2.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Nebraska FC

1.29

WLDDW

+0.10

-0.16

94%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VSA Rush (5th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VSA Rush

-5

0.86

LDLLD

+0.10

+0.00

5.0

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1
L	Fri Sep 25	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-11

0.17

LLLLD

+0.16

+0.14

5.9

D	Sun Oct 11	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.