Gretna Elite Academy

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU18/19 · 6 teams · Gretna Elite Academy (all teams)

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3rd

3-2-2 record · 7 played

1.57 points per game

+4 goal diff · 13–9

WWDWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8

+0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Gretna Elite Academy
3rd · 1.57 PPG

Arkansas Comets FC
6th · 0.17 PPG

NOKC Soccer Fields, Field 5 ↗ far trip

65% 17% 18%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.3 against · 2.12 expected points)

Season so far	Gretna Elite Academy	Arkansas Comets FC
Position	3rd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-2	0-1-5
Points per game	1.57	0.17
Goals for / game	1.9	1.3
Goals against / game	1.3	3.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	L W D W W	D L L L L
Biggest win	6–2 vs Arkansas Comets FC	—
Worst loss	0–3 at Sporting Iowa Central	2–6 at Gretna Elite Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.39	-1.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.04	+0.16

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 6–2 vs Arkansas Comets FC (W)

Common opponents: VSA Rush — we 1–1, 3–0; they 1–1. Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–3, 1–1; they 0–2. OK Energy FC — we 2–1; they 2–3, 2–5. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 0–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Arkansas Comets FC concede 3.2/game; worst result 2–6 at Gretna Elite Academy.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Sporting Iowa Central, 0–1 vs Sporting Nebraska FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 17% / loss 18%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at NOKC Soccer Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.50 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.38 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.8 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 39%
3rd 41%
4th 18%
5th <1%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sporting Iowa Central	2.14 (+0.57)	1st (2.22)	15 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	OK Energy FC	2.00 (+0.43)	2nd (1.65)	13 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Gretna Elite Academy to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

25 favour us

4 even

8 favour them

+1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Arkansas Comets FC 6th · 0-1-5 · GD -11	Away far trip NOKC Soccer Fields	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.12	1.64	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	OK Energy FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD -1	Away far trip North Oklahoma City FC	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–1	1.60	1.64	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM	Sporting Nebraska FC 4th · 2-3-2 · GD +0	Away far trip CHI Nebraska MultiSport Complex	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.45	1.62	Upside
Sat Dec 5 03:00 PM	St. Louis Stars SC	Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.76	1.63	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 01:00 PM	Missouri Rush	Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.76	1.64	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sporting Iowa Central

+13

2.14

WDDWW

-0.15

-0.24

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–0	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC

-1

2.00

LWWWL

-0.14

+0.14

98%

2.6

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	VSA Rush (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

1.57

WWDWL

+0.04

-0.24

100%

2.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Nebraska FC

1.29

WLDDW

+0.10

-0.16

94%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VSA Rush (5th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VSA Rush

-5

0.86

LDLLD

+0.10

+0.00

5.0

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1
L	Fri Sep 25	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-11

0.17

LLLLD

+0.16

+0.14

5.9

D	Sun Oct 11	at	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	VSA Rush (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.