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Kansas Rush

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU13 · 12 teams · Kansas Rush (all teams)

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5th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
-1 goal diff · 9–10
LWDWLlast 5
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
-0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM

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Kansas Rush
5th · 1.67 PPG
at
VSA Rush
8th · 1.00 PPG

VSA Timberline Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.7 against · 1.31 expected points)

Season so farKansas RushVSA Rush
Position5th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-23-0-6
Points per game1.671.00
Goals for / game1.51.7
Goals against / game1.72.1
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L W D W LL L L W W
Biggest win5–3 at Arkansas Comets FC6–2 vs Sporting Nebraska FC
Worst loss0–4 at Gretna Elite Academy1–5 vs Arkansas Comets FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.25-0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.70-0.08

Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 5–3; they 1–5. OK Energy FC — we 0–1; they 2–0. Union KC Soccer Club — we 2–1; they 0–2. Kansas City Athletics — we 1–1; they 1–2. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 1–0; they 6–2. Gretna Elite Academy — we 0–4; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at OK Energy FC, 0–4 at Gretna Elite Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    VSA Rush have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at VSA Timberline Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    OK Energy FC sit 4th on 1.78 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above OK Energy FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the VSA Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas Rush – VSA Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.57 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2
Win
1.86 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.57 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.43 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 25%
  8. 8th 21%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 St. Louis Stars SC 2.67 (+1.00) 1st (2.45) 49 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 Sporting Iowa Central 2.44 (+0.77) 2nd (2.14) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
3 FC Wichita 2.00 (+0.33) 3rd (2.13) 34 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 OK Energy FC 1.78 (+0.11) 5th (1.56) A point next game

How the results connect

36 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Kansas Rush to VSA Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us
2 even
16 favour them
-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–1 0–4 3–1 1–0 2–6 2–1 2–0 0–1 0–2 5–3 5–1 1–1 2–1 2–2 2–1 0–0 1–1 1–2 Kansas Rush 5th Kansas City Athleti… 9th Gretna Elite Academy 6th Sporting Nebraska FC 12th Union KC Soccer Club 11th OK Energy FC 4th Arkansas Comets FC 7th Sporting Iowa Centr… 2nd VSA Rush 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 6 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 1st hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM		 VSA Rush
8th · 3-0-6 · GD -4		 Away
VSA Timberline Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.31 1.62 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Sporting Iowa Central
2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +13		 Away
Hy-Vee Multiplex		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.59 1.49 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 FC Wichita
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +18		 Away
Stryker Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.42 1.37 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Missouri Rush
10th · 1-1-4 · GD +0		 Away
Missouri Rush Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.11 1.34 Upside
Sun Feb 21
TBD		 St. Louis Stars SC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +18		 Away
Sport 360 Soccer Zone		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.32 1.25 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 FC Wichita
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 1.20 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Missouri Rush
10th · 1-1-4 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.36 1.21 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 St. Louis Stars SC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.45 1.15 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 OK Energy FC
4th · 4-4-1 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.22 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Arkansas Comets FC
7th · 4-1-4 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–2 1.26 1.17 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Union KC Soccer Club
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -10		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.90 1.21 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Kansas City Athletics
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.70 1.24 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 Sporting Iowa Central
2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 0–1 0.77 1.21 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 VSA Rush
8th · 3-0-6 · GD -4		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.58 1.23 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 Sporting Nebraska FC
12th · 0-1-7 · GD -37		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–1 2.66 1.30 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 Gretna Elite Academy
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.10 1.29 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 St. Louis Stars SC 6510 213+18 162.67 WWWWW -0.04 -0.20 100% 1.3
2 Sporting Iowa Central 9711 196+13 222.44 LWDWW -0.22 +0.03 99% 2.5
3 FC Wichita 8512 2810+18 162.00 WLWDW -0.27 -0.09 99% 2.4
4 OK Energy FC 9441 129+3 161.78 DWDLD -0.23 +0.13 24% 5.3
5 Kansas Rush 6312 910-1 101.67 LWDWL -0.70 +0.27 4% 7.3
6 Gretna Elite Academy 8413 1411+3 131.63 WWLDW +0.54 -0.36 65% 4.4
7 Arkansas Comets FC 9414 2219+3 131.44 WWDLW -0.23 +0.13 8% 6.4
8 VSA Rush 9306 1519-4 91.00 WWLLL -0.08 +0.14 0% 8.8
9 Kansas City Athletics 7214 713-6 71.00 LLWWL +0.19 -0.01 0% 9.2
10 Missouri Rush 6114 1010+0 40.67 LWLLL +0.24 -0.08 2% 7.9
11 Union KC Soccer Club 7115 818-10 40.57 DLLLW +0.25 +0.01 0% 10.5
12 Sporting Nebraska FC 8017 643-37 10.13 DLLLL +0.54 +0.15 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.