VSA Rush
ECNL Boys · Heartland BU13 · 12 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM
VSA Timberline Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.6 against · 1.47 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA Rush | Kansas Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-6 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W W | L W D W L |
| Biggest win | 6–2 vs Sporting Nebraska FC | 5–3 at Arkansas Comets FC |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Arkansas Comets FC | 0–4 at Gretna Elite Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.38 | -0.25 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.08 | -0.70 |
Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–3; they 0–4. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 6–2; they 1–0. OK Energy FC — we 2–0; they 0–1. Arkansas Comets FC — we 1–5; they 5–3. Kansas City Athletics — we 1–2; they 1–1. Union KC Soccer Club — we 0–2; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at St. Louis Stars SC, 0–2 at Union KC Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush – Kansas Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.90 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 21%
- 9th 29%
- 10th 23%
- 11th 9%
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Stars SC | 2.67 (+1.67) | 1st (2.45) | 50 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Sporting Iowa Central | 2.44 (+1.44) | 2nd (2.14) | 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Wichita | 2.00 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.13) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 4 | OK Energy FC | 1.78 (+0.78) | 5th (1.56) | 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | Kansas Rush | 1.67 (+0.67) | 7th (1.29) | 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 6 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.63 (+0.63) | 4th (1.71) | 27 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC | 1.44 (+0.44) | 6th (1.40) | 23 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
36 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link VSA Rush to Kansas Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 3rd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
Kansas Rush 5th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
FC Wichita 3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +18 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Gretna Elite Academy 6th · 4-1-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Sporting Nebraska FC 12th · 0-1-7 · GD -37 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 1.10 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Arkansas Comets FC 7th · 4-1-4 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.91 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC 4th · 4-4-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Missouri Rush 10th · 1-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
St. Louis Stars SC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.38 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Wichita 3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.35 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Kansas Rush 5th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa Central 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +13 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–2 | 0.70 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 03:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club 11th · 1-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 9th · 2-1-4 · GD -6 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.07 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Stars SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.04 | -0.20 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Oct 31 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting Iowa Central | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 22 | 2.44 | LWDWW | -0.22 | +0.03 | 99% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wichita · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas Rush · Sat Apr 3 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wichita | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 16 | 2.00 | WLWDW | -0.27 | -0.09 | 99% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 1 at VSA Rush · Sun Nov 8 vs Kansas Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | OK Energy FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 | 1.78 | DWDLD | -0.23 | +0.13 | 26% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 at Missouri Rush See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Kansas Rush | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | LWDWL | -0.70 | +0.27 | 3% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at VSA Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 8 at FC Wichita See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Gretna Elite Academy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 | 1.63 | WWLDW | +0.54 | -0.36 | 61% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Union KC Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arkansas Comets FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 | 1.44 | WWDLW | -0.23 | +0.13 | 8% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 at St. Louis Stars SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | VSA Rush | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 9 | 1.00 | WWLLL | -0.08 | +0.14 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Wichita · Sat Apr 3 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Kansas City Athletics | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | 1.00 | LLWWL | +0.19 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Missouri Rush · Sun Oct 25 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Nebraska FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Missouri Rush | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 4 | 0.67 | LWLLL | +0.24 | -0.08 | 2% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Oct 25 vs Union KC Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Union KC Soccer Club | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLLW | +0.25 | +0.01 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 43 | -37 | 1 | 0.13 | DLLLL | +0.54 | +0.15 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 at Union KC Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.