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Florida Premier FC

ECNL Boys · Florida BU15 · 11 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)

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4th
5-0-2 record · 7 played
2.14 points per game
+12 goal diff · 19–7
LWWWLlast 5
61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Florida Premier FC
4th · 2.14 PPG
at

Autonation Field at U School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.2 against · 0.72 expected points)

Season so farFlorida Premier FCFort Lauderdale United FC
Position4th2nd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-26-1-1
Points per game2.142.38
Goals for / game2.73.3
Goals against / game1.00.5
Clean sheets26
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W W W LW D W L W
Biggest win7–1 vs AC Florida West6–0 vs Space Coast United
Worst loss1–2 at Sporting SA JAX1–3 vs Sporting SA JAX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.94+1.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.54-0.55

Common opponents: AC Florida West — we 7–1; they 6–0. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–2; they 3–1, 1–3. Space Coast United — we 1–0; they 3–0, 6–0. Doral Soccer Club — we 2–1; they 5–0. Parkland Soccer Club — we 3–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Fort Lauderdale United FC score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Fort Lauderdale United FC concede only 0.5/game with 6 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Athletic Club Florida.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 18%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Autonation Field at U School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fort Lauderdale United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC – Fort Lauderdale United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.88 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.25 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.88 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
61% top 4
39% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 14%
  4. 4th 40%
  5. 5th 27%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Florida Kraze Krush 2.67 (+0.53) 2nd (2.28) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Fort Lauderdale United FC 2.38 (+0.24) 1st (2.29) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 Sporting SA JAX 2.33 (+0.19) 3rd (2.15) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

36 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC to Fort Lauderdale United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
4 even
23 favour them
-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–1 0–6 3–2 0–2 1–2 3–1 1–0 0–3 1–3 2–1 0–5 0–6 0–1 1–2 0–1 0–0 0–1 6–0 0–2 Florida Premier FC 4th AC Florida West 11th Parkland Soccer Club 9th Sporting SA JAX 3rd Space Coast United 10th Doral Soccer Club 7th Athletic Club Flori… 6th Florida Kraze Krush 1st Fort Lauderdale Uni… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 3rd hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
09:00 AM
no score posted
Florida Kraze Krush
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Central Winds
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.87 1.98 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Fort Lauderdale United FC
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +22
Away far trip
Autonation Field at U School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.84 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Palm Beach United
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Gardens North County District Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.66 1.83 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
02:00 PM
Florida Premier FC South
8th · 1-2-3 · GD -3
Home
Starkey Ranch District Park
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.39 1.88 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
04:00 PM
Fort Lauderdale United FC
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +22
Home
Starkey Ranch District Park
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.94 1.80 Upside
Sun Mar 21
01:00 PM
Palm Beach United
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Home
Starkey Ranch District Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.93 1.81 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
AC Florida West
11th · 0-0-5 · GD -24
Away far trip
Bayshore Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.85 1.88 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
06:00 PM
Parkland Soccer Club
9th · 2-2-6 · GD -7
Away far trip
Terramar Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.11 1.90 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM
Athletic Club Florida
6th · 3-2-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.24 1.86 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
Florida Kraze Krush
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +10
Home
Starkey Ranch District Park
●●●●○ Tough
25%
0–1 1.06 1.81 Upside
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM
Sporting SA JAX
3rd · 7-0-2 · GD +6
Home
Starkey Ranch District Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.68 1.80 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
Space Coast United
10th · 0-1-8 · GD -19
Home
Starkey Ranch District Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.71 1.85 Bank it
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
Doral Soccer Club
7th · 2-1-5 · GD -7
Away far trip
Morgan Levy Park Doral
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.08 1.86 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Florida Kraze Krush 6510 100+10 162.67 WDWWW -0.09 -0.15 98% 2.0
2 Fort Lauderdale United FC 8611 264+22 192.38 WLWDW -0.55 +0.02 99% 1.8
3 Sporting SA JAX 9702 1812+6 212.33 WWWWW +0.63 -0.68 95% 2.7
4 Florida Premier FC 7502 197+12 152.14 LWWWL -0.54 +0.17 61% 4.2
5 Palm Beach United 6402 118+3 122.00 LWLWW -0.40 +0.12 10% 5.6
6 Athletic Club Florida 6321 103+7 111.83 DLWDW -0.53 +0.14 37% 4.7
7 Doral Soccer Club 8215 613-7 70.88 LLWLL +0.61 -0.35 0% 7.5
8 Florida Premier FC South 6123 1114-3 50.83 LDLLD -0.54 +0.30 0% 8.3
9 Parkland Soccer Club 10226 1219-7 80.80 WLDLD +0.03 +0.04 0% 8.1
10 Space Coast United 9018 423-19 10.11 DLLLL +0.65 -0.30 0% 10.2
11 AC Florida West 5005 529-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.55 +0.19 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.