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Total Futbol Academy - OC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U17 · 16 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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9th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 8–5
LLWlast 3
17% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.8
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:35 PM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC
9th · 1.00 PPG
at
City SC - San Diego
14th · 0.33 PPG

Pine Community Park, Pine Community Park ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.4 against · 1.77 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OCCity SC - San Diego
Position9th14th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-20-1-2
Points per game1.000.33
Goals for / game2.70.7
Goals against / game1.71.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L LD L L
Biggest win5–0 vs CITY SC San Marcos—
Worst loss1–2 at Laguna United0–2 vs California Football Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.51-0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08+0.50

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    City SC - San Diego average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 22% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:35 PM at Pine Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A win moves us above FLYTE SC- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC - San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC – City SC - San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 10th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 4
Loss
0.75 PPG
14th▼ down 5 13th▼ down 4 14th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
17% top 4
83% below the top 4
6.8 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 19%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego 3.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.86) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
2 Laguna United 3.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.93) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.50 (+1.50) 1st (2.49) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 California Football Academy 2.33 (+1.33) 2nd (2.05) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Inland Surf 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.83) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Riverside 2.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.58) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 1.75 (+0.75) 3rd (1.97) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 1.50 (+0.50) 10th (1.25) Win next game

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 9th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
06:35 PM
City SC - San Diego
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -3
Away
Pine Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.77 1.19 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:40 AM
Elite FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 1.40 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
02:30 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 1.36 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 1.35 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.61 1.26 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.18 1.25 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.15 1.34 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.20 1.42 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.11 1.48 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 1.48 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.31 1.54 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Home
Azusa High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.56 1.61 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego 2200 73+4 63.00 WW -0.99 +0.09 42% 5.2
2 Laguna United 3300 96+3 93.00 WWW +0.07 -0.07 53% 4.5
3 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4310 202+18 102.50 WWDW -0.39 -0.08 99% 1.3
4 California Football Academy 3210 41+3 72.33 WWD +0.93 -0.28 69% 3.8
5 Inland Surf 3201 63+3 62.00 WLW +0.31 -0.16 39% 5.3
6 ALBION SC Riverside 3201 54+1 62.00 WWL -0.12 +0.01 14% 7.2
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4211 134+9 71.75 LWDW -0.42 +0.02 64% 4.0
8 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4202 1013-3 61.50 LWWL -0.02 +0.03 1% 10.1
9 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3102 85+3 31.00 LLW -0.08 -0.05 17% 6.8
10 BOCA OC 3102 711-4 31.00 WLL +0.81 -0.16 2% 9.8
11 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 48-4 31.00 LWL -0.33 +0.13 0% 12.0
12 Elite FC 3102 49-5 31.00 WLL +0.56 -0.09 0% 11.4
13 City SC Southwest 3102 311-8 31.00 LLW +0.01 +0.05 0% 13.1
14 City SC - San Diego 3012 25-3 10.33 LLD +0.50 -0.10 0% 11.4
15 Strikers FC North 3003 08-8 00.00 LLL -0.28 +0.15 0% 15.0
16 Reds FC 3003 09-9 00.00 LLL +0.05 +0.08 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.