Reds FC
Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U17 · 16 teams · SoCal Reds FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:45 PM
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park, Field 3 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.1 against · 0.93 expected points)
| Season so far | Reds FC | City SC Southwest |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-3 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L | W L L |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 vs Strikers FC North |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 0–7 at ALBION SC Santa Ana |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.47 | -1.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | +0.01 |
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
City SC Southwest concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–7 at ALBION SC Santa Ana.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs ALBION SC Riverside, 0–3 vs ALBION SC San Diego, 0–5 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 06:45 PM at Patricia Birdsall Sport Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Strikers FC North sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Strikers FC North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the City SC Southwest game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reds FC – City SC Southwest) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 16th— holds |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
13th▲ up 3 | 13th▲ up 3 | 15th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
15th▲ up 1 | 16th— holds | 16th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 16th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th 1%
- 12th 3%
- 13th 5%
- 14th 12%
- 15th 30%
- 16th 49%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC San Diego | 3.00 (+3.00) | 5th (1.86) | 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | Laguna United | 3.00 (+3.00) | 4th (1.93) | 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 2.50 (+2.50) | 1st (2.49) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | California Football Academy | 2.33 (+2.33) | 2nd (2.05) | 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 5 | Inland Surf | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.83) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC Riverside | 2.00 (+2.00) | 8th (1.58) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 1.75 (+1.75) | 3rd (1.97) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 8 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 1.50 (+1.50) | 10th (1.25) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 9 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 7th (1.61) | 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 10 | BOCA OC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 9th (1.26) | 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 11 | CITY SC San Marcos | 1.00 (+1.00) | 13th (0.98) | 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 12 | Elite FC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 12th (1.06) | 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 13 | City SC Southwest | 1.00 (+1.00) | 14th (0.84) | 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 14 | City SC - San Diego | 0.33 (+0.33) | 11th (1.06) | A point next game |
| 15 | Strikers FC North | 0.00 (+0.00) | 15th (0.51) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 4th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 06:45 PM |
City SC Southwest 13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Away Patricia Birdsall Sport Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 03:55 PM |
Strikers FC North 15th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away OC Great Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 07:00 PM |
ALBION SC Santa Ana 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home Orange County Great Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.11 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
CITY SC San Marcos 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
California Football Academy 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Elite FC 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.96 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Laguna United 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.48 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
Inland Surf 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.35 | 0.49 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
City SC - San Diego 14th · 0-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
0–1 | 0.91 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 02:55 PM |
BOCA OC 10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 9th · 1-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away Azusa High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.32 | 0.49 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.99 | +0.09 | 43% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BOCA OC · Sat Oct 31 vs Inland Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Strikers FC North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Laguna United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.07 | -0.07 | 54% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inland Surf · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 8 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 2 | +18 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.39 | -0.08 | 99% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Riverside · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 at Reds FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | California Football Academy | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | WWD | +0.93 | -0.28 | 70% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 1 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 8 vs Laguna United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Inland Surf | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.31 | -0.16 | 39% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Laguna United · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC - San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | ALBION SC Riverside | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.12 | +0.01 | 13% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sun Nov 1 vs City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Southwest See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 7 | 1.75 | LWDW | -0.42 | +0.02 | 63% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at California Football Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Laguna United · Sat Nov 7 at Total Futbol Academy - OC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.02 | +0.03 | 1% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Elite FC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 7 at CITY SC San Marcos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.08 | -0.05 | 16% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Oct 25 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | BOCA OC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.81 | -0.16 | 2% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Oct 31 at City SC Southwest · Sat Nov 7 at Elite FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | CITY SC San Marcos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | -0.33 | +0.13 | 0% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Strikers FC North · Sun Oct 25 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Nov 1 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Elite FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.56 | -0.09 | 0% | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sat Nov 7 vs BOCA OC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | City SC Southwest | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.01 | +0.05 | 0% | 13.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Reds FC · Sat Oct 31 vs BOCA OC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | City SC - San Diego | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.50 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sun Oct 25 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Strikers FC North | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.28 | +0.15 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sat Oct 31 vs Reds FC · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Reds FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.05 | +0.08 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC Southwest · Sat Oct 31 at Strikers FC North · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.