BOCA OC
Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U17 · 16 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:55 PM
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field), El Rancho Charter School Upper 11v11 Field ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.1 against · 0.98 expected points)
| Season so far | BOCA OC | ALBION SC San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 2-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at CITY SC San Marcos | 3–0 at Reds FC |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at ALBION SC Santa Ana | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.43 | +0.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.81 | -0.99 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
ALBION SC San Diego score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at ALBION SC Santa Ana.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Total Futbol Academy - OC sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Total Futbol Academy - OC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC – ALBION SC San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.75 PPG |
13th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 3 | 14th▼ down 4 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 2 | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
13th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 3 | 14th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–3 loss we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 19%
- 10th 18%
- 11th 14%
- 12th 10%
- 13th 6%
- 14th 4%
- 15th 2%
- 16th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC San Diego | 3.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.86) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Laguna United | 3.00 (+2.00) | 4th (1.93) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 2.50 (+1.50) | 1st (2.49) | 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 4 | California Football Academy | 2.33 (+1.33) | 2nd (2.05) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | Inland Surf | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.83) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC Riverside | 2.00 (+1.00) | 8th (1.58) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 1.75 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.97) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 8 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 1.50 (+0.50) | 10th (1.25) | Win next game |
| 9 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 1.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.61) | A point next game |
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.16 · 14th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:55 PM |
ALBION SC San Diego 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
2–3 | 0.98 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 07:00 PM |
City SC Southwest 13th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Away Patricia Birdsall Sport Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–2 | 1.76 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Elite FC 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away Don Lugo High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.47 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 02:55 PM |
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +9 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.64 | 1.12 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Strikers FC North 15th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 03:55 PM |
City SC - San Diego 14th · 0-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.61 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 02:55 PM |
California Football Academy 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 6th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.96 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 9th · 1-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.74 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 02:55 PM |
Reds FC 16th · 0-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 1.25 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 09:55 AM |
Inland Surf 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 8th · 2-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
3–2 | 1.63 | 1.26 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.99 | +0.09 | 45% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BOCA OC · Sat Oct 31 vs Inland Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Strikers FC North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Laguna United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.07 | -0.07 | 52% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inland Surf · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 8 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 2 | +18 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.39 | -0.08 | 99% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Riverside · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 at Reds FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | California Football Academy | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | WWD | +0.93 | -0.28 | 70% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 1 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 8 vs Laguna United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Inland Surf | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.31 | -0.16 | 41% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Laguna United · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC - San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Riverside | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.12 | +0.01 | 11% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sun Nov 1 vs City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Southwest See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 7 | 1.75 | LWDW | -0.42 | +0.02 | 64% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at California Football Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Laguna United · Sat Nov 7 at Total Futbol Academy - OC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.02 | +0.03 | 1% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Elite FC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 7 at CITY SC San Marcos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.08 | -0.05 | 16% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Oct 25 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | BOCA OC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.81 | -0.16 | 2% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Oct 31 at City SC Southwest · Sat Nov 7 at Elite FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | CITY SC San Marcos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | -0.33 | +0.13 | 0% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Strikers FC North · Sun Oct 25 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Nov 1 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Elite FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.56 | -0.09 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sat Nov 7 vs BOCA OC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | City SC Southwest | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.01 | +0.05 | 0% | 13.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Reds FC · Sat Oct 31 vs BOCA OC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | City SC - San Diego | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.50 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sun Oct 25 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Strikers FC North | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.28 | +0.15 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sat Oct 31 vs Reds FC · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Reds FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.05 | +0.08 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC Southwest · Sat Oct 31 at Strikers FC North · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.