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Oaks FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U16 · 15 teams · Oaks FC (all teams)

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11th
0-1-1 record · 2 played
0.50 points per game
-2 goal diff · 5–7
DLlast 2
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.8
-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Oaks FC
11th · 0.50 PPG
at

The Palmdale Aerospace Academy, Griffin Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.1 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so farOaks FCALBION SC Antelope Valley
Position11th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-11-1-0
Points per game0.502.00
Goals for / game2.52.5
Goals against / game3.52.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L DD W
Biggest win—4–3 vs LA Surf LC
Worst loss2–4 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.51+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.27-0.76

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at The Palmdale Aerospace Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LAIFC sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above LAIFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Antelope Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oaks FC – ALBION SC Antelope Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG
13th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.33 PPG
9th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 3 11th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 14th▼ down 3
Loss
0.33 PPG
13th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 9%
  15. 15th 4%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+2.50) 2nd (2.32) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Total Futbol Academy 3.00 (+2.50) 1st (2.48) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+2.50) 3rd (2.21) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Los Angeles 2.25 (+1.75) 5th (1.63) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+1.50) 6th (1.62) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+1.50) 8th (1.41) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 AC Brea 1.50 (+1.00) 4th (1.79) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+1.00) 7th (1.42) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 Fram Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.50) 11th (1.09) A point next game
10 LAIFC 1.00 (+0.50) 13th (0.94) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Oaks FC to ALBION SC Antelope Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 2–1 1–1 Oaks FC 11th ALBION SC Los Angel… 4th Rangers FC 13th ALBION SC Antelope … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
6th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Away
The Palmdale Aerospace Academy · turf
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.00 0.67 Upside
Sun Oct 25
08:30 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Away
John Adams MS
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.32 0.58 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:45 PM
FC Golden State Force
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.86 0.64 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Los Angeles SC
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
West Covina High School
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.06 0.71 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM
AC Brea
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +4
Away
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–4 0.63 0.70 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.02 0.86 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
LA Galaxy Soccer Complex (Toyota Sports Complex)
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.27 0.91 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
LAIFC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.54 0.97 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.51 0.93 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–1 1.47 0.97 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.73 0.96 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.06 1.03 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -0.51 -0.05 95% 2.3
2 Total Futbol Academy 3300 111+10 93.00 WWW +0.25 -0.20 99% 1.7
3 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 135+8 93.00 WWW -0.38 -0.01 91% 2.8
4 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4301 910-1 92.25 LWWW -0.14 +0.07 21% 6.3
5 FC Golden State Force 3201 97+2 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.09 23% 6.2
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2110 54+1 42.00 WD -0.76 +0.15 8% 7.9
7 AC Brea 2101 95+4 31.50 WL +0.31 -0.08 49% 5.0
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 34-1 31.50 WL +0.58 -0.07 9% 7.7
9 Fram Soccer Club 3102 610-4 31.00 LLW +0.06 +0.03 1% 10.3
10 LAIFC 3102 511-6 31.00 WLL +0.17 +0.09 0% 11.7
11 Oaks FC 2011 57-2 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.10 1% 10.8
12 City SC Los Angeles 2011 47-3 10.50 LD +0.63 -0.06 2% 9.8
13 Rangers FC 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.36 -0.07 1% 10.0
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 310-7 00.00 LLL -0.57 +0.29 0% 14.1
15 LA Surf LC 3003 514-9 00.00 LLL +0.36 +0.04 0% 13.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.