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FC Golden State Force

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U16 · 15 teams · FC Golden State Force (all teams)

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5th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 9–7
LWWlast 3
23% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2
-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:05 PM

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FC Golden State Force
5th · 2.00 PPG
vs
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0.00 PPG

Bell Gardens High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.5 against · 2.35 expected points)

Season so farFC Golden State ForceLA Surf Futures
Position5th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-10-0-3
Points per game2.000.00
Goals for / game3.01.0
Goals against / game2.33.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W LL L L
Biggest win4–1 at LAIFC—
Worst loss3–5 vs Central Cal Aztecs0–4 vs Fram Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.27-1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.45-0.57

Common opponents: LAIFC — we 4–1; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Surf Futures average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LA Surf Futures have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Los Angeles sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A win moves us above ALBION SC Los Angeles on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf Futures game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Golden State Force – LA Surf Futures) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG
4th▲ up 1 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.25 PPG
4th▲ up 1 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.75 PPG
6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
23% top 4
77% below the top 4
6.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.32) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Total Futbol Academy 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.48) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+1.00) 3rd (2.21) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Los Angeles 2.25 (+0.25) 5th (1.63) Win next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Golden State Force to LA Surf Futures through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 3–1 3–5 6–1 FC Golden State For… 5th LAIFC 10th Central Cal Aztecs 3rd LA Surf Futures 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 4th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:05 PM
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -7
Home
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 2.09 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
12:15 PM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
4th · 3-0-1 · GD -1
Away
Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.44 1.96 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:45 PM
Oaks FC
11th · 0-1-1 · GD -2
Home
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 1.98 1.96 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:45 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
6th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Home
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.71 1.92 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 2.00 1.93 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 1.78 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.81 1.78 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
AC Brea
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 0.99 1.71 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.83 1.64 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.43 1.62 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
12th · 0-1-1 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.63 1.62 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -0.51 -0.05 95% 2.3
2 Total Futbol Academy 3300 111+10 93.00 WWW +0.25 -0.20 99% 1.7
3 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 135+8 93.00 WWW -0.38 -0.01 91% 2.8
4 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4301 910-1 92.25 LWWW -0.14 +0.07 21% 6.3
5 FC Golden State Force 3201 97+2 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.09 23% 6.2
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2110 54+1 42.00 WD -0.76 +0.15 8% 7.9
7 AC Brea 2101 95+4 31.50 WL +0.31 -0.08 49% 5.0
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 34-1 31.50 WL +0.58 -0.07 9% 7.7
9 Fram Soccer Club 3102 610-4 31.00 LLW +0.06 +0.03 1% 10.3
10 LAIFC 3102 511-6 31.00 WLL +0.17 +0.09 0% 11.7
11 Oaks FC 2011 57-2 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.10 1% 10.8
12 City SC Los Angeles 2011 47-3 10.50 LD +0.63 -0.06 2% 9.8
13 Rangers FC 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.36 -0.07 1% 10.0
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 310-7 00.00 LLL -0.57 +0.29 0% 14.1
15 LA Surf LC 3003 514-9 00.00 LLL +0.36 +0.04 0% 13.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.