ALBION SC Santa Monica
Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U16 · 15 teams · ALBION SC Santa Monica (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:00 PM
Silverlakes Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.2 for, 1.6 against · 2.55 expected points)
| Season so far | ALBION SC Santa Monica | LAIFC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | L L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Fram Soccer Club | 3–1 at LA Surf Futures |
| Worst loss | — | 1–6 vs Central Cal Aztecs |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.81 | -1.05 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.51 | +0.17 |
Game plan
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 06:00 PM at Silverlakes Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LAIFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Monica – LAIFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 3rd▼ down 2 | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 4 | 6th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 29%
- 2nd 34%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 9%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Monica to LAIFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 10th hardest of 15
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 06:00 PM |
LAIFC 10th · 1-0-2 · GD -6 |
Away Silverlakes Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.55 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 08:30 AM |
Oaks FC 11th · 0-1-1 · GD -2 |
Home John Adams MS |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.78 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Central Cal Aztecs 3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +8 |
Away Kaiser Sports Village |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.57 | 2.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 06:00 PM |
AC Brea 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away Whittier College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
3–2 | 1.82 | 2.42 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
LA Surf LC 15th · 0-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley 6th · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.39 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.17 | 2.30 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Los Angeles 4th · 3-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
LA Surf Futures 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.77 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.01 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Rangers FC 13th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.39 | 2.32 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.51 | -0.05 | 95% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAIFC · Sun Oct 25 vs Oaks FC · Sat Oct 31 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Total Futbol Academy | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.25 | -0.20 | 99% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Oct 31 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf Futures See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Central Cal Aztecs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.38 | -0.01 | 91% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Los Angeles | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.14 | +0.07 | 21% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 7 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Golden State Force | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.45 | +0.09 | 23% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf Futures · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sun Nov 1 vs Oaks FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.76 | +0.15 | 10% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oaks FC · Sat Oct 31 at Fram Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Brea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.31 | -0.08 | 47% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fram Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 21 vs Oaks FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Los Angeles SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.58 | -0.07 | 9% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs Oaks FC · Sun Nov 8 at Rangers FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Fram Soccer Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.06 | +0.03 | 1% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Brea · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Mar 6 at FC Golden State Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | LAIFC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.17 | +0.09 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Nov 1 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs Rangers FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oaks FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | DL | -0.27 | +0.10 | 1% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Nov 1 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | City SC Los Angeles | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.63 | -0.06 | 2% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Rangers FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.36 | -0.07 | 1% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at LAIFC · Sun Nov 8 vs Los Angeles SC · Sun Nov 22 vs AC Brea See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LA Surf Futures | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.57 | +0.29 | 0% | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | LA Surf LC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.36 | +0.04 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Central Cal Aztecs · Sat Oct 31 at Total Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.