UFA Norcross
Elite Academy League · Southeast U17 · 8 teams · UFA Norcross (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.0 against · 1.90 expected points)
| Season so far | UFA Norcross | UFA Gainesville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 5-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.78 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | W W L W L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at ALBION SC Atlanta | 5–0 at ALBION SC Nashville |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 1–5 at All-IN FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.19 | +0.60 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | -0.05 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 2–1 at UFA Gainesville (W)
Common opponents: Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 2–3, 5–2; they 4–3. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 5–1; they 5–2. ALBION SC Atlanta Metro — we 1–3; they 1–1. All-IN FC — we 4–1; they 1–5, 0–4. BVBIA Georgia — we 4–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 58% / draw 17% / loss 25%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
All-IN FC sit 2nd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.14.A win moves us above All-IN FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the UFA Gainesville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (UFA Norcross – UFA Gainesville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 13%
- 2nd 28%
- 3rd 47%
- 4th 11%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 2.43 (+0.29) | 1st (2.31) | 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 2 | All-IN FC | 2.25 (+0.11) | 2nd (2.26) | Win next game |
How the results connect
51 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link UFA Norcross to UFA Gainesville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.23 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
UFA Gainesville 4th · 5-1-3 · GD +7 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
BVBIA Georgia 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -7 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
All-IN FC 2nd · 6-0-2 · GD +19 |
Away Gary Pirkle Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
ALBION SC Nashville 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -13 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.64 | 2.09 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Nashville 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -13 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +18 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.22 | 2.05 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 08:30 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta 6th · 2-1-6 · GD -27 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
5–1 | 2.84 | 2.11 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.22 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Gainesville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | All-IN FC | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 18 | 2.25 | WLWWW | -0.16 | -0.35 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | UFA Norcross | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.06 | -0.23 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | UFA Gainesville | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 16 | 1.78 | LWLWW | -0.05 | -0.18 | 98% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 9 | 1.13 | WWLLL | +0.29 | -0.06 | 2% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 38 | -27 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWDL | +0.06 | +0.87 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | BVBIA Georgia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 5 | 0.71 | WLLDL | -0.08 | +0.26 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ALBION SC Nashville | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | -0.09 | +0.49 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.