UFA Gainesville
Elite Academy League · Southeast U17 · 8 teams · UFA Gainesville (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.9 against · 0.93 expected points)
| Season so far | UFA Gainesville | UFA Norcross |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-3 | 5-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W L | W W W W L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at ALBION SC Nashville | 5–1 at ALBION SC Atlanta |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at All-IN FC | 1–3 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.60 | +1.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.05 | -0.06 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–2 vs UFA Norcross (L)
Common opponents: All-IN FC — we 1–5, 0–4; they 4–1. Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 4–3; they 2–3, 5–2. ALBION SC Atlanta Metro — we 1–1; they 1–3. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 5–2; they 5–1. BVBIA Georgia — we 4–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
UFA Norcross score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs All-IN FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
UFA Norcross have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Pinckneyville Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the UFA Norcross game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (UFA Gainesville – UFA Norcross) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.90 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.70 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 82%
- 5th 2%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 2.43 (+0.65) | 1st (2.31) | 19 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | All-IN FC | 2.25 (+0.47) | 2nd (2.26) | 16 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | UFA Norcross | 2.14 (+0.36) | 3rd (2.11) | 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
51 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link UFA Gainesville to UFA Norcross through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.18 · 5th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
UFA Norcross 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +12 |
Away Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:30 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta 6th · 2-1-6 · GD -27 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 1.79 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +18 |
Away Field B - Dresden Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.68 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM |
Covered Bridge Soccer Club 5th · 3-0-5 · GD -9 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.25 | 1.74 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 04:30 PM |
BVBIA Georgia 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -7 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.77 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.22 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Gainesville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | All-IN FC | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 18 | 2.25 | WLWWW | -0.16 | -0.35 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | UFA Norcross | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.06 | -0.23 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | UFA Gainesville | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 16 | 1.78 | LWLWW | -0.05 | -0.18 | 98% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 9 | 1.13 | WWLLL | +0.29 | -0.06 | 2% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 38 | -27 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWDL | +0.06 | +0.87 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | BVBIA Georgia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 5 | 0.71 | WLLDL | -0.08 | +0.26 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ALBION SC Nashville | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | -0.09 | +0.49 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.