TableChase Clubs

Washington East Surf Columbia Basin

Elite Academy League · PACNW U15 · 17 teams · Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 39 minutes ago.
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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+16 goal diff · 20–4
WWWWlast 4
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:45 PM

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Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Everett FC
9th · 1.50 PPG

Lincoln Field, Lincoln Field ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.1 against · 2.08 expected points)

Season so farWashington East Surf Columbia BasinEverett FC
Position1st9th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-0-2
Points per game3.001.50
Goals for / game5.03.0
Goals against / game1.02.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW L W L
Biggest win7–0 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle4–0 vs ALBION SC Washington
Worst loss—1–2 at BVBIA Washington
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.11+0.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.46-0.34

Common opponents: BVBIA Washington — we 4–2; they 1–2. Atletico Rojo — we 4–0; they 4–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Everett FC score 3.0/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 15% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:45 PM at Lincoln Field.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Everett FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Washington East Surf Columbia Basin – Everett FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

67% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 67%
  2. 2nd 18%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Washington East Surf Columbia Basin to Everett FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 2–4 4–2 2–1 5–2 1–1 3–0 4–3 Washington East Sur… 1st Atletico Rojo 11th BVBIA Washington 8th Seattle Celtic 10th Harbor SC 2nd Everett FC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 14th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:45 PM
Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4
Away
Lincoln Field
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.08 2.82 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
03:30 PM
ALBION SC Washington
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Away
Sirius Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–1 2.84 2.82 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
03:00 PM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
12th · 2-0-4 · GD -15
Home
Pasco Sporting Complex - Soccer Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.88 2.83 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM
Warriors Sports Academy
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Pasco Sporting Complex - Soccer Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 2.78 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
06:00 PM
Western WA Surf Academy White
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Silas High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.80 2.67 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Highline Premier FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -9
Away
Delridge Playfield
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.78 2.68 Bank it
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM
Sparta Tacoma
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +20
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
3–3 1.42 2.57 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Mt. Rainier
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 2.58 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
Emerald City FC
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.64 2.51 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Harbor SC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.39 2.50 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.52 2.50 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4400 204+16 123.00 WWWW -0.46 -0.12 97% 1.6
2 Harbor SC 4301 107+3 92.25 LWWW -0.55 +0.07 13% 7.4
3 Sparta Tacoma 6411 3111+20 132.17 WWWWL -0.19 -0.11 85% 3.0
4 ALBION SC Hawaii 6411 165+11 132.17 WWWDL -0.06 -0.95 89% 2.8
5 Emerald City FC 6411 103+7 132.17 WLWWW -0.48 +0.09 35% 5.7
6 Western WA Surf Academy White 5311 146+8 102.00 WLDWW -0.88 +0.34 19% 6.7
7 Warriors Sports Academy 3201 85+3 62.00 WWL -0.68 +0.08 8% 8.2
8 BVBIA Washington 6312 1310+3 101.67 LLWDW +1.20 -0.76 34% 5.5
9 Everett FC 4202 128+4 61.50 LWLW -0.34 -0.02 9% 7.9
10 Seattle Celtic 6222 1414+0 81.33 WDLDW +0.63 -0.44 5% 8.3
11 Atletico Rojo 7214 915-6 71.00 WLDLL +0.24 -0.12 0% 11.8
12 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6204 419-15 61.00 WLLWL +0.32 -0.04 0% 13.5
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5104 221-19 30.60 LLLLW +0.40 -0.00 0% 15.5
14 Mt. Rainier 6105 214-12 30.50 LLWLL -0.23 +0.29 0% 15.1
15 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.07 ——
16 Highline Premier FC 4004 312-9 00.00 LLLL -0.49 +0.20 0% 15.4
17 ALBION SC Washington 4004 216-14 00.00 LLLL +0.68 -0.08 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.