Mt. Rainier

Elite Academy League · PACNW U15 · 17 teams · Mt. Rainier (all teams)

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14th

1-0-5 record · 6 played

0.50 points per game

-12 goal diff · 2–14

LLWLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.1

-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM

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Mt. Rainier
14th · 0.50 PPG

BVBIA Washington
8th · 1.67 PPG

Robinswood Sports Park, Robinswood East Field ↗

7% 13% 80%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 2.7 against · 0.34 expected points)

Season so far	Mt. Rainier	BVBIA Washington
Position	14th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-5	3-1-2
Points per game	0.50	1.67
Goals for / game	0.3	2.2
Goals against / game	2.3	1.7
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	4	1
Form (recent first)	L L W L L	W D W L L
Biggest win	1–0 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle	5–1 vs Sparta Tacoma
Worst loss	0–4 vs Seattle Celtic	0–3 at ALBION SC Hawaii
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.41	+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.23	+1.20

Common opponents: ALBION SC Hawaii — we 0–3; they 0–3.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 at Emerald City FC, 0–3 at ALBION SC Hawaii, 0–3 vs Warriors Sports Academy, 0–4 vs Seattle Celtic.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Robinswood Sports Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle sit 13th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.50.
A point moves us above Valencia CF Academy - Seattle on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BVBIA Washington game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mt. Rainier – BVBIA Washington) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.43 PPG	14th— holds	13th▲ up 1	16th▼ down 2
Win 0.86 PPG	13th▲ up 1	13th▲ up 1	15th▼ down 1
Draw 0.57 PPG	14th— holds	13th▲ up 1	16th▼ down 2
Loss 0.43 PPG	14th— holds	13th▲ up 1	16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–2 loss we finish as high as 13th if every rival drops points, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

15.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th <1%
12th 2%
13th 11%
14th 22%
15th 24%
16th 24%
17th 18%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin	3.00 (+2.50)	1st (2.50)	45 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Harbor SC	2.25 (+1.75)	7th (1.73)	33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3	Sparta Tacoma	2.17 (+1.67)	3rd (2.24)	32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	ALBION SC Hawaii	2.17 (+1.67)	2nd (2.25)	32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Emerald City FC	2.17 (+1.67)	5th (1.92)	32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6	Western WA Surf Academy White	2.00 (+1.50)	6th (1.78)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7	Warriors Sports Academy	2.00 (+1.50)	9th (1.63)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8	BVBIA Washington	1.67 (+1.17)	4th (1.93)	24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
9	Everett FC	1.50 (+1.00)	8th (1.65)	21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10	Seattle Celtic	1.33 (+0.83)	10th (1.61)	19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11	Atletico Rojo	1.00 (+0.50)	12th (1.12)	13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12	Western WA Surf Academy Blue	1.00 (+0.50)	13th (0.81)	13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
13	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle	0.60 (+0.10)	16th (0.52)	A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Mt. Rainier to BVBIA Washington through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

2 even

11 favour them

-5.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 2nd hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM	BVBIA Washington 8th · 3-1-2 · GD +3	Away Robinswood Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–2	0.34	0.48	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	ALBION SC Washington 17th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Home Game Farm Park	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.44	0.60	Upside
Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM	Everett FC 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4	Home Game Farm Park	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–2	0.47	0.58	Upside
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	Sting Soccer Club - ID 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Real Life Ministries	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.49	0.57	Upside
Sat Jan 9 12:00 AM	Harbor SC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3	Away TBD	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.40	0.56	Upside
Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM	Western WA Surf Academy White 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8	Away TBD	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–2	0.28	0.54	Upside
Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM	Highline Premier FC 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -9	Away TBD	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.08	0.58	Upside
Sun Jan 24 12:00 AM	Sparta Tacoma 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +20	Home TBD	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–4	0.16	0.55	Upside
Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16	Home TBD	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.16	0.52	Upside
Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM	Atletico Rojo 11th · 2-1-4 · GD -6	Home TBD	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.93	0.55	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Washington East Surf Columbia Basin

+16

3.00

WWWW

-0.46

-0.12

98%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Everett FC · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 14 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Everett FC (9th)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	4–1	93%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	5–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	4–1	91%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	3–3	42%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Harbor SC

2.25

LWWW

-0.55

+0.07

13%

7.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Everett FC (9th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Nov 8 vs Emerald City FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–4	14%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sparta Tacoma

+20

2.17

WWWWL

-0.19

-0.11

86%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–5
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	11–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	9–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 7 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Harbor SC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Everett FC (9th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	4–2	74%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	3–2	50%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	3–3	42%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	3–2	70%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	5–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Hawaii

+11

2.17

WWWDL

-0.06

-0.95

89%

2.8

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	2–2
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	3–0
W	Fri Aug 28	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	3–0

Next: Fri Feb 19 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Feb 20 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Feb 21 vs Western WA Surf Academy White See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Feb 19	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Emerald City FC

2.17

WLWWW

-0.48

+0.09

35%

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sun Nov 8 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 22 at Sting Soccer Club - ID See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Western WA Surf Academy White

2.00

WLDWW

-0.88

+0.34

20%

6.8

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Soccer Club - ID · Sat Nov 14 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Warriors Sports Academy

2.00

WWL

-0.68

+0.08

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA Washington

1.67

LLWDW

+1.20

-0.76

34%

5.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	5–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mt. Rainier · Sun Oct 25 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Rojo See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Everett FC

1.50

LWLW

-0.34

-0.02

8.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	4–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Oct 25 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle Celtic

1.33

WDLDW

+0.63

-0.44

8.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–5
D	Sat Sep 26	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Highline Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Rojo

-6

1.00

WLDLL

+0.24

-0.12

11.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	4–1
L	Fri Aug 28	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Dec 12 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Western WA Surf Academy Blue

-15

1.00

WLLWL

+0.32

-0.04

13.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Valencia CF Academy - Seattle

-19

0.60

LLLLW

+0.40

-0.00

15.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	0–11
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Emerald City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 21 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Everett FC (9th)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	1–1	34%
·	Fri Feb 19	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mt. Rainier

-12

0.50

LLWLL

-0.23

+0.29

15.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Seattle Celtic (10th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–0
L	Fri Sep 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Emerald City FC (5th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sun Nov 15 vs Everett FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Highline Premier FC (16th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	1–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Soccer Club - ID

0.00

—

-0.07

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 14 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 vs Mt. Rainier See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Atletico Rojo (11th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highline Premier FC

-9

0.00

LLLL

-0.49

+0.20

15.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Washington See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	ALBION SC Washington (17th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Everett FC (9th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Harbor SC (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Mt. Rainier (14th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	1–5	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Washington

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.68

-0.08

15.1

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (6th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Harbor SC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Everett FC (9th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Nov 8 at Mt. Rainier See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sparta Tacoma (3rd)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (1st)	1–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mt. Rainier (14th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Highline Premier FC (16th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Atletico Rojo (11th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Warriors Sports Academy (7th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Emerald City FC (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (12th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	BVBIA Washington (8th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Seattle Celtic (10th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (15th)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.