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Seattle Celtic

Elite Academy League · PACNW U15 · 17 teams · Seattle Celtic (all teams)

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10th
2-2-2 record · 6 played
1.33 points per game
+0 goal diff · 14–14
WDLDWlast 5
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
+0.63 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Seattle Celtic
10th · 1.33 PPG
vs

Valley Ridge Park, #4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.2 against · 1.57 expected points)

Season so farSeattle CelticWarriors Sports Academy
Position10th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-22-0-1
Points per game1.332.00
Goals for / game2.32.7
Goals against / game2.31.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W D L D WL W W
Biggest win4–0 at Mt. Rainier5–2 vs Highline Premier FC
Worst loss2–5 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin0–3 at Emerald City FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.28+0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.63-0.68

Common opponents: Mt. Rainier — we 4–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 19% / loss 35%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Everett FC sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above Everett FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Warriors Sports Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle Celtic – Warriors Sports Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.29 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
1.57 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 10th— holds
Draw
1.29 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
1.14 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 16%
  9. 9th 18%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 3.00 (+1.67) 1st (2.50) 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Harbor SC 2.25 (+0.92) 7th (1.73) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3 Sparta Tacoma 2.17 (+0.84) 3rd (2.24) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Hawaii 2.17 (+0.84) 2nd (2.25) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Emerald City FC 2.17 (+0.84) 5th (1.92) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 Western WA Surf Academy White 2.00 (+0.67) 6th (1.78) 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 Warriors Sports Academy 2.00 (+0.67) 9th (1.63) 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 BVBIA Washington 1.67 (+0.34) 4th (1.93) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 Everett FC 1.50 (+0.17) 8th (1.65) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Seattle Celtic to Warriors Sports Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 even
0 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 0–3 1–1 4–1 2–5 2–5 2–2 3–0 2–2 3–0 1–0 0–2 Seattle Celtic 10th Mt. Rainier 14th Atletico Rojo 11th Sparta Tacoma 3rd ALBION SC Hawaii 4th Highline Premier FC 16th Emerald City FC 5th Warriors Sports Aca… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.44 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Warriors Sports Academy
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Valley Ridge Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.57 1.37 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Harbor SC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Valley Ridge Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.54 1.39 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
Highline Premier FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -9
Home
Valley Ridge Park
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 1.50 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
Emerald City FC
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.93 1.45 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:55 PM
Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4
Away
Lincoln Field
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.11 1.42 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
12th · 2-0-4 · GD -15
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.28 1.49 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -19
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.69 1.58 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.71 1.59 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
02:00 PM
BVBIA Washington
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Away
Tillicum Middle School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.01 1.55 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Washington
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.55 1.61 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4400 204+16 123.00 WWWW -0.46 -0.12 98% 1.6
2 Harbor SC 4301 107+3 92.25 LWWW -0.55 +0.07 13% 7.4
3 Sparta Tacoma 6411 3111+20 132.17 WWWWL -0.19 -0.11 86% 3.0
4 ALBION SC Hawaii 6411 165+11 132.17 WWWDL -0.06 -0.95 89% 2.8
5 Emerald City FC 6411 103+7 132.17 WLWWW -0.48 +0.09 35% 5.6
6 Western WA Surf Academy White 5311 146+8 102.00 WLDWW -0.88 +0.34 20% 6.8
7 Warriors Sports Academy 3201 85+3 62.00 WWL -0.68 +0.08 8% 8.2
8 BVBIA Washington 6312 1310+3 101.67 LLWDW +1.20 -0.76 34% 5.5
9 Everett FC 4202 128+4 61.50 LWLW -0.34 -0.02 8% 8.0
10 Seattle Celtic 6222 1414+0 81.33 WDLDW +0.63 -0.44 5% 8.3
11 Atletico Rojo 7214 915-6 71.00 WLDLL +0.24 -0.12 0% 11.8
12 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6204 419-15 61.00 WLLWL +0.32 -0.04 0% 13.6
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5104 221-19 30.60 LLLLW +0.40 -0.00 0% 15.4
14 Mt. Rainier 6105 214-12 30.50 LLWLL -0.23 +0.29 0% 15.1
15 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.07 ——
16 Highline Premier FC 4004 312-9 00.00 LLLL -0.49 +0.20 0% 15.4
17 ALBION SC Washington 4004 216-14 00.00 LLLL +0.68 -0.08 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.