BVBIA Washington
Elite Academy League · PACNW U15 · 17 teams · BVBIA Washington (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM
Robinswood Sports Park, Robinswood East Field ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.7 against · 2.53 expected points)
| Season so far | BVBIA Washington | Mt. Rainier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W L L | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Sparta Tacoma | 1–0 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at ALBION SC Hawaii | 0–4 vs Seattle Celtic |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.64 | -1.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.20 | -0.23 |
Common opponents: ALBION SC Hawaii — we 0–3; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Mt. Rainier average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at ALBION SC Hawaii.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mt. Rainier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA Washington – Mt. Rainier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.86 PPG |
8th— holds | 6th▲ up 2 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
8th— holds | 6th▲ up 2 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 6%
- 10th 3%
- 11th 1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.50) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Harbor SC | 2.25 (+0.58) | 7th (1.73) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 3 | Sparta Tacoma | 2.17 (+0.50) | 3rd (2.24) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | ALBION SC Hawaii | 2.17 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.25) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | Emerald City FC | 2.17 (+0.50) | 5th (1.92) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | Western WA Surf Academy White | 2.00 (+0.33) | 6th (1.78) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 7 | Warriors Sports Academy | 2.00 (+0.33) | 9th (1.63) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
How the results connect
13 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link BVBIA Washington to Mt. Rainier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.76 · 16th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM |
Mt. Rainier 14th · 1-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home Robinswood Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.53 | 1.79 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Warriors Sports Academy 7th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home Tillicum Middle School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 03:30 PM |
Atletico Rojo 11th · 2-1-4 · GD -6 |
Away Sirius Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 05:00 PM |
Sting Soccer Club - ID 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Robinswood Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 02:30 PM |
Highline Premier FC 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away Evergreen High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM |
Emerald City FC 5th · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 12:00 AM |
Western WA Surf Academy Blue 12th · 2-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
2–0 | 2.39 | 1.85 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -19 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.60 | 1.90 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Washington 17th · 0-0-4 · GD -14 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 02:00 PM |
Seattle Celtic 10th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home Tillicum Middle School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.93 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.46 | -0.12 | 97% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Everett FC · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 14 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Harbor SC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.55 | +0.07 | 13% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Nov 8 vs Emerald City FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Sparta Tacoma | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 11 | +20 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWWL | -0.19 | -0.11 | 86% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 7 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Harbor SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | ALBION SC Hawaii | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWDL | -0.06 | -0.95 | 89% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Feb 19 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Feb 20 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Feb 21 vs Western WA Surf Academy White See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Emerald City FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWW | -0.48 | +0.09 | 36% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sun Nov 8 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 22 at Sting Soccer Club - ID See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Western WA Surf Academy White | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.88 | +0.34 | 19% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Soccer Club - ID · Sat Nov 14 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Warriors Sports Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.68 | +0.08 | 8% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | BVBIA Washington | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWDW | +1.20 | -0.76 | 35% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mt. Rainier · Sun Oct 25 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Rojo See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Everett FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.34 | -0.02 | 8% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Oct 25 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Seattle Celtic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | WDLDW | +0.63 | -0.44 | 5% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Highline Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Atletico Rojo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 | 1.00 | WLDLL | +0.24 | -0.12 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Dec 12 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.32 | -0.04 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.40 | -0.00 | 0% | 15.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Emerald City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 21 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Mt. Rainier | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | -0.23 | +0.29 | 0% | 15.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sun Nov 15 vs Everett FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Sting Soccer Club - ID | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 14 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 vs Mt. Rainier See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Highline Premier FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.49 | +0.20 | 0% | 15.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Washington See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | ALBION SC Washington | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.68 | -0.08 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Nov 8 at Mt. Rainier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.