TableChase Clubs

Boise Thorns Pre- Three

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 7 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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6th
0-1-3 record · 4 played
0.25 points per game
-30 goal diff · 4–34
LLDLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+1.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 13, TBD

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Boise Thorns Pre- Three
6th · 0.25 PPG
at
Boise Thorns Pre- Two
5th · 1.00 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–6 (expected goals 1.7 for, 6.1 against · 0.15 expected points)

Season so farBoise Thorns Pre- ThreeBoise Thorns Pre- Two
Position6th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-31-2-2
Points per game0.251.00
Goals for / game1.02.6
Goals against / game8.52.6
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L D L LD W L L D
Biggest win—4–1 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II
Worst loss1–16 at Idaho Rush Pre- Black0–2 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- West
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.95+0.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.09+0.67

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- Black — we 1–16; they 2–2. Utah Surf PRE Black — we 0–6; they 2–3. La Roca FC Pre North T2 — we 3–3; they 5–5. Utah Avalanche Pre- West — we 0–9; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs Utah Surf PRE Black, 0–9 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- West.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 3%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Boise Thorns Pre- Two game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Thorns Pre- Three – Boise Thorns Pre- Two) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.20 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
0.80 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Draw
0.40 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
0.20 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–6 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 95%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.08 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- West 3.00 (+2.75) 1st (2.65) 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 La Roca FC Pre North T2 2.00 (+1.75) 3rd (1.75) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
3 Idaho Rush Pre- Black 1.67 (+1.42) 2nd (1.81) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 Utah Surf PRE Black 1.20 (+0.95) 5th (1.28) 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
5 Boise Thorns Pre- Two 1.00 (+0.75) 4th (1.36) 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

15 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Boise Thorns Pre- Three to Boise Thorns Pre- Two through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
12 favour them
-7.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 5–5 0–6 3–2 0–9 2–0 1–16 2–2 4–2 3–1 4–0 3–4 3–2 Boise Thorns Pre- T… 6th La Roca FC Pre Nort… 2nd Utah Surf PRE Black 4th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 1st Idaho Rush Pre- Bla… 3rd Boise Thorns Pre- T… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 4th 7th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 18 Sep 20

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.59 · 1st hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- Two
5th · 1-2-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–5 0.27 0.25 Upside
Fri Sep 18
05:30 PM
no score posted		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II
7th · 0-0-2 · GD -6		 Home
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 2–3 0.67 0.32 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Boise Thorns Pre- Two
5th · 1-2-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–6 0.15 0.30 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II
7th · 0-0-2 · GD -6		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–4 0.43 0.31 Upside
Sun Apr 25
03:00 PM		 La Roca FC Pre North T2
2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
La Roca Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–7 0.09 0.29 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Utah Avalanche Pre- West
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.04 0.26 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Utah Avalanche Pre- West
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–8 0.02 0.24 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Black
3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +16		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–7 0.08 0.23 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- West 4400 182+16 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.78 100% 1.0
2 La Roca FC Pre North T2 4220 1511+4 82.00 WDWD -0.54 +0.01 94% 2.9
3 Idaho Rush Pre- Black 6312 2913+16 101.67 WWWLL -0.31 -0.33 97% 2.6
4 Utah Surf PRE Black 5203 1313+0 61.20 LLLWW +0.03 +0.40 43% 4.5
5 Boise Thorns Pre- Two 5122 1313+0 51.00 DLLWD +0.67 -0.84 61% 4.2
6 Boise Thorns Pre- Three 4013 434-30 10.25 LLDL +1.09 +0.59 0% 6.9
7 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 2002 17-6 00.00 LL +0.84 -0.06 5% 5.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.