La Roca FC Pre North T2
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 7 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, 07:30 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.5 against · 1.77 expected points)
| Season so far | La Roca FC Pre North T2 | Utah Surf PRE Black |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-0 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W D W | W W L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at Utah Surf PRE Black | 6–0 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.54 | +0.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.54 | +0.03 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 3–1 at Utah Surf PRE Black (W)
Common opponents: Boise Thorns Pre- Three — we 3–3; they 6–0. Idaho Rush Pre- Black — we 4–2; they 3–4. Boise Thorns Pre- Two — we 5–5; they 3–2.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 16% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Surf PRE Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC Pre North T2 – Utah Surf PRE Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.20 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.20 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.80 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 37%
- 3rd 41%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- West | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.65) | 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
11 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link La Roca FC Pre North T2 to Utah Surf PRE Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Aug 29 12:15 PM no score posted |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -6 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 2.06 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 17 TBD no score posted |
Utah Avalanche Pre- West 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Rockwell Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 1.79 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 07:30 PM |
Utah Surf PRE Black 4th · 2-0-3 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.77 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–2 | 1.99 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Black 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +16 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
3–3 | 1.17 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 03:00 PM |
Boise Thorns Pre- Three 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -30 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
7–1 | 2.88 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- West 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.72 | 1.75 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- West | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.56 | -0.78 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Oct 17 vs La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | La Roca FC Pre North T2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | WDWD | -0.54 | +0.01 | 94% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Surf PRE Black See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Idaho Rush Pre- Black | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 10 | 1.67 | WWWLL | -0.31 | -0.33 | 97% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Sat Apr 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Utah Surf PRE Black | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.03 | +0.40 | 45% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Apr 3 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- West See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Boise Thorns Pre- Two | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 5 | 1.00 | DLLWD | +0.67 | -0.84 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three · Sat Sep 19 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Three See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Boise Thorns Pre- Three | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 34 | -30 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +1.09 | +0.59 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Fri Sep 18 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns Pre- Two See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.84 | -0.06 | 5% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- West · Fri Sep 18 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.