Utah Surf PRE Black
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 7 teams · Utah Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, 07:30 PM
La Roca Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.5 for, 3.2 against · 1.06 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Surf PRE Black | La Roca FC Pre North T2 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 2-2-0 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L L L | D W D W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three | 3–1 at Utah Surf PRE Black |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.12 | +0.54 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | -0.54 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North T2 (L)
Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- Black — we 3–4; they 4–2. Boise Thorns Pre- Two — we 3–2; they 5–5. Boise Thorns Pre- Three — we 6–0; they 3–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 30%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 07:30 PM at La Roca Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC Pre North T2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Surf PRE Black – La Roca FC Pre North T2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 28%
- 5th 44%
- 6th 13%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- West | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.65) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | La Roca FC Pre North T2 | 2.00 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.75) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 3 | Idaho Rush Pre- Black | 1.67 (+0.47) | 2nd (1.81) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
11 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Surf PRE Black to La Roca FC Pre North T2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.40 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 TBD no score posted |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 07:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre North T2 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–3 | 1.06 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- West 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Boise Thorns Pre- Two 5th · 1-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.57 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Idaho Rush Pre- Black 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.00 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.09 | 1.28 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- West | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.56 | -0.78 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Oct 17 vs La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | La Roca FC Pre North T2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | WDWD | -0.54 | +0.01 | 94% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Surf PRE Black See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Idaho Rush Pre- Black | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 10 | 1.67 | WWWLL | -0.31 | -0.33 | 97% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Sat Apr 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- West See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Utah Surf PRE Black | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.03 | +0.40 | 43% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Apr 3 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- West See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Boise Thorns Pre- Two | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 5 | 1.00 | DLLWD | +0.67 | -0.84 | 61% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three · Sat Sep 19 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Three See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Boise Thorns Pre- Three | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 34 | -30 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +1.09 | +0.59 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Fri Sep 18 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns Pre- Two See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.84 | -0.06 | 5% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- West · Fri Sep 18 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.