Lakota FC Black

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Lakota Futbol Club (all teams)

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6th

0-1-5 record · 6 played

0.17 points per game

-23 goal diff · 1–24

DLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0

+0.79 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM

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Lakota FC Black
6th · 0.17 PPG

Sporting Columbus
2nd · 1.83 PPG

Line Hill, Field 4 ↗

4% 90%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.4 for, 5.0 against · 0.18 expected points)

Season so far	Lakota FC Black	Sporting Columbus
Position	6th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-5	3-2-1
Points per game	0.17	1.83
Goals for / game	0.2	4.2
Goals against / game	4.0	3.5
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	5	0
Form (recent first)	L L L L D	W W L D D
Biggest win	—	8–1 vs Lakota FC Black
Worst loss	1–8 at Sporting Columbus	1–8 at Columbus Force Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.33	+0.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.79	+0.32

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 1–8 at Sporting Columbus (L)

Common opponents: Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White — we 0–0; they 4–3. Indy Eleven Pre — we 0–2; they 4–4, 6–3. Columbus Force Pre — we 0–7, 0–5; they 2–2, 1–8.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Sporting Columbus score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting Columbus concede 3.5/game; worst result 1–8 at Columbus Force Pre.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–2 vs FC Pride Elite Pre, 0–0 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White, 0–2 vs Indy Eleven Pre, 0–7 at Columbus Force Pre, 0–5 vs Columbus Force Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White sit 5th on 0.57 PPG; we are on 0.17.
A point moves us above Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Columbus game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lakota FC Black – Sporting Columbus) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.14 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 0.57 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Draw 0.29 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 0.14 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

6.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th 3%
6th 97%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.30 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Columbus Force Pre	2.14 (+1.97)	1st (2.20)	21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sporting Columbus	1.83 (+1.66)	2nd (2.01)	18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Indy Eleven Pre	1.71 (+1.54)	3rd (1.60)	17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Pride Elite Pre	1.43 (+1.26)	4th (1.38)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White	0.57 (+0.40)	5th (0.75)	A point next game

How the results connect

28 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lakota FC Black to Sporting Columbus through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

4 even

20 favour them

-2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 3rd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM	Sporting Columbus 2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +4	Home Line Hill	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–5	0.18	0.17	Upside
Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White 5th · 0-4-3 · GD -4	Away far trip John Ankeney Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.41	0.20	Upside
Sun Nov 8 04:30 PM	Indy Eleven Pre 3rd · 3-3-1 · GD +6	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–4	0.16	0.20	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:15 PM	FC Pride Elite Pre 4th · 3-1-3 · GD -4	Away far trip FC Pride Performance Center	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.49	0.23	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Columbus Force Pre

+21

2.14

DDWWW

-0.75

+0.21

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lakota FC Black (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lakota FC Black (6th)	7–0
W	Thu Sep 17	vs	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	8–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	1–1
D	Fri Sep 11	at	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Columbus

1.83

DDLWW

+0.32

-0.88

100%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	6–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lakota FC Black (6th)	8–1
L	Thu Sep 17	at	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	1–8
D	Fri Sep 11	vs	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 6	at	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	4–4
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	4–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre · Mon Jan 1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Lakota FC Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	3–1	65%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lakota FC Black (6th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	3–2	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre

1.71

WDLDW

-0.37

+0.49

100%

3.1

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	5–0
D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	3–6
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lakota FC Black (6th)	2–0
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 6	vs	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	4–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Columbus Force Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Black (6th)	4–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-4

1.43

DLLWL

+0.25

-0.37

98%

3.8

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	2–1
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Lakota FC Black (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	3–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sporting Columbus · Mon Jan 1 at Sporting Columbus · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Black (6th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White

-4

0.57

DDDLD

+0.08

+0.06

5.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Lakota FC Black (6th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	3–4
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Columbus Force Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Columbus · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lakota FC Black (6th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Black

-23

0.17

DLLLL

+0.79

+0.08

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force Pre (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	1–8
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	0–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Columbus · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White · Sun Nov 8 at Indy Eleven Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Columbus (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Indy Eleven Pre (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.