Columbus Force Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Columbus Force SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.2 against · 2.36 expected points)
| Season so far | Columbus Force Pre | Indy Eleven Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-0 | 3-3-1 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D D | W D L D W |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs Sporting Columbus | 5–0 at FC Pride Elite Pre |
| Worst loss | — | 3–6 at Sporting Columbus |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.91 | +0.50 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.75 | -0.37 |
Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre — we 0–0, 2–0; they 2–0, 5–0. Sporting Columbus — we 2–2, 8–1; they 4–4, 3–6. Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White — we 1–1; they 2–2, 2–2. Lakota FC Black — we 7–0, 5–0; they 2–0.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at FC Pride Elite Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Indy Eleven Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Columbus Force Pre – Indy Eleven Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 77%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
47 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Columbus Force Pre to Indy Eleven Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.21 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 01:30 PM |
Indy Eleven Pre 3rd · 3-3-1 · GD +6 |
Home Havener Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.36 | 2.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:30 PM |
Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White 5th · 0-4-3 · GD -4 |
Home Havener Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–0 | 2.56 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
Indy Eleven Pre 3rd · 3-3-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Grand Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.20 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Force Pre | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 15 | 2.14 | DDWWW | -0.75 | +0.21 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Sporting Columbus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | DDLWW | +0.32 | -0.88 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre · Mon Jan 1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Lakota FC Black See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Indy Eleven Pre | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 12 | 1.71 | WDLDW | -0.37 | +0.49 | 100% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Columbus Force Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 10 | 1.43 | DLLWL | +0.25 | -0.37 | 98% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sporting Columbus · Mon Jan 1 at Sporting Columbus · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 | 0.57 | DDDLD | +0.08 | +0.06 | 2% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Columbus Force Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Columbus · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Lakota FC Black | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.79 | +0.08 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Columbus · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White · Sun Nov 8 at Indy Eleven Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.