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FC Pride Elite Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · FC Pride (all teams)

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4th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
-4 goal diff · 7–11
DLLWLlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8
+0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 12:15 PM

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FC Pride Elite Pre
4th · 1.43 PPG
vs
Lakota FC Black
6th · 0.17 PPG

FC Pride Performance Center, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 0.7 against · 2.33 expected points)

Season so farFC Pride Elite PreLakota FC Black
Position4th6th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-30-1-5
Points per game1.430.17
Goals for / game1.00.2
Goals against / game1.64.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless45
Form (recent first)L W L L DL L L L D
Biggest win3–1 at Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White—
Worst loss0–5 vs Indy Eleven Pre1–8 at Sporting Columbus
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.42-2.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.25+0.79

Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 2–0 at Lakota FC Black (W)

Common opponents: Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White — we 3–1, 2–1; they 0–0. Columbus Force Pre — we 0–0, 0–2; they 0–7, 0–5. Indy Eleven Pre — we 0–2, 0–5; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Lakota FC Black average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 5 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Lakota FC Black concede 4.0/game; worst result 1–8 at Sporting Columbus.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 vs Columbus Force Pre, 0–2 vs Columbus Force Pre, 0–2 at Indy Eleven Pre, 0–5 vs Indy Eleven Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Lakota FC Black have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lakota FC Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Pride Elite Pre – Lakota FC Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.63 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
1.63 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.25 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
3.8 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 79%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.90 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Columbus Force Pre 2.14 (+0.71) 1st (2.20) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Sporting Columbus 1.83 (+0.40) 2nd (2.01) 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Indy Eleven Pre 1.71 (+0.28) 3rd (1.60) 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection

How the results connect

33 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Pride Elite Pre to Lakota FC Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us
2 even
7 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 2–0 2–1 0–0 3–1 0–5 0–2 5–0 0–0 7–0 1–1 3–6 8–1 4–4 FC Pride Elite Pre 4th Indy Eleven Pre 3rd Ohio Galaxies FC BS… 5th Columbus Force Pre 1st Sporting Columbus 2nd Lakota FC Black 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 17 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.37 · 5th hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Sporting Columbus
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.74 1.34 Upside
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Sporting Columbus
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.74 1.27 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:15 PM		 Lakota FC Black
6th · 0-1-5 · GD -23		 Home
FC Pride Performance Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 2–0 2.33 1.38 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Columbus Force Pre 7430 254+21 152.14 DDWWW -0.75 +0.21 100% 1.2
2 Sporting Columbus 6321 2521+4 111.83 DDLWW +0.32 -0.88 100% 1.9
3 Indy Eleven Pre 7331 2014+6 121.71 WDLDW -0.37 +0.49 100% 3.1
4 FC Pride Elite Pre 7313 711-4 101.43 DLLWL +0.25 -0.37 99% 3.8
5 Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White 7043 1014-4 40.57 DDDLD +0.08 +0.06 1% 5.0
6 Lakota FC Black 6015 124-23 10.17 DLLLL +0.79 +0.08 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.