Mercury Pre- North

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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1st

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+35 goal diff · 36–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

-1.98 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Mercury Pre- North
1st · 3.00 PPG

Columbus Force Pre- 2
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗

52% 19% 30%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre- North	Columbus Force Pre- 2
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	5-0-1
Points per game	3.00	2.50
Goals for / game	6.0	6.3
Goals against / game	0.2	0.5
Clean sheets	5	4
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W W L W
Biggest win	10–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2	10–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2
Worst loss	—	1–2 vs Mercury Pre- North
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.26	+3.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.98	-2.04

Already played this season: Sat Sep 5 2–1 at Columbus Force Pre- 2 (W)

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 — we 7–0, 5–0; they 7–0, 6–1. Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 — we 9–0, 10–0; they 5–0, 10–0. FC Storm Premier 2 — we 3–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Columbus Force Pre- 2 score 6.3/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Columbus Force Pre- 2 concede only 0.5/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 19% / loss 30%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Columbus Force Pre- 2 have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Columbus Force Pre- 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- North – Columbus Force Pre- 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.57 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

73% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 73%
2nd 22%
3rd 5%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

22 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- North to Columbus Force Pre- 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

5 even

10 favour them

-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.70 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Indy Eleven Pre- II 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +18	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.00	2.86	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Columbus Force Pre- 2 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +35	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.74	2.72	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 2-1-3 · GD -12	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	5–0	2.92	2.74	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Indy Eleven Pre- II 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.70	2.64	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre- North

+35

3.00

WWWWW

-1.98

+1.70

100%

1.3

W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Tue Sep 15	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	9–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre- II

+18

3.00

WWW

-2.54

+0.61

100%

2.4

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	8–0
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre- 2 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	7–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre- 2

+35

2.50

WLWWW

-2.04

+1.72

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Mercury Pre- North · Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-12

1.17

LDWLW

-0.44

+1.43

99%

4.0

W	Tue Oct 20	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–8
W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	4–0
D	Tue Sep 22	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–2
L	Tue Sep 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2

-38

0.17

LDLLL

+1.65

-0.37

5.4

L	Tue Oct 20	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–10
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–10
D	Tue Sep 22	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-38

0.00

LLLLL

+2.19

-2.89

5.5

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.