Indy Eleven Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Indy Eleven Academy (all teams)

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2nd

3-0-0 record · 3 played

3.00 points per game

+18 goal diff · 18–0

WWWlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4

-2.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Indy Eleven Pre- II
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2
5th · 0.17 PPG

Home of The Brave - HOB, HOB - Field #3 ↗ far trip

98%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.9 for, 0.8 against · 2.96 expected points)

Season so far	Indy Eleven Pre- II	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-0	0-1-5
Points per game	3.00	0.17
Goals for / game	6.0	0.3
Goals against / game	0.0	6.7
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	5
Form (recent first)	W W W	L L L D L
Biggest win	8–0 vs FC Storm Premier 2	—
Worst loss	—	0–10 at Mercury Pre- North
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.46	-3.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-2.54	+1.65

Common opponents: FC Storm Premier 2 — we 8–0; they 2–2, 0–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 5 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 concede 6.7/game; worst result 0–10 at Mercury Pre- North.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 6–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at Home of The Brave - HOB.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Mercury Pre- North sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.
A win moves us above Mercury Pre- North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Indy Eleven Pre- II – Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.25 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.4 average finish

1st 11%
2nd 33%
3rd 56%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre- North	3.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.64)	Win next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Indy Eleven Pre- II to Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

25 favour us

1 favour them

+7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.61 · 4th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Mercury Pre- North 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +35	Away	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.83	2.46	Upside
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 5th · 0-1-5 · GD -38	Away far trip Home of The Brave - HOB	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	6–0	2.96	2.56	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Columbus Force Pre- 2 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +35	Away far trip Havener Park	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.97	2.29	Upside
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 2-1-3 · GD -12	Away far trip Miami Meadows	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–1	2.73	2.36	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Columbus Force Pre- 2 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +35	Home Grand Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	2–2	1.28	2.22	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Mercury Pre- North 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +35	Home Grand Park	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–2	1.11	2.10	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 5th · 0-1-5 · GD -38	Home Grand Park	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	7–0	2.98	2.19	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre- North

+35

3.00

WWWWW

-1.98

+1.70

100%

1.3

W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Tue Sep 15	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	9–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre- II

+18

3.00

WWW

-2.54

+0.61

100%

2.4

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	8–0
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre- 2 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	7–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre- 2

+35

2.50

WLWWW

-2.04

+1.72

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Mercury Pre- North · Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-12

1.17

LDWLW

-0.44

+1.43

99%

4.0

W	Tue Oct 20	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–8
W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	4–0
D	Tue Sep 22	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–2
L	Tue Sep 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2

-38

0.17

LDLLL

+1.65

-0.37

5.4

L	Tue Oct 20	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–10
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–10
D	Tue Sep 22	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-38

0.00

LLLLL

+2.19

-2.89

5.5

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.