Columbus Force Pre- 2

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Columbus Force SC (all teams)

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3rd

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+35 goal diff · 38–3

WLWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2

-2.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Columbus Force Pre- 2
3rd · 2.50 PPG

FC Storm Premier 2
4th · 1.17 PPG

Miami Meadows, field 1 ↗ far trip

93%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.84 expected points)

Season so far	Columbus Force Pre- 2	FC Storm Premier 2
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	2-1-3
Points per game	2.50	1.17
Goals for / game	6.3	1.7
Goals against / game	0.5	3.7
Clean sheets	4	2
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	W L W D L
Biggest win	10–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2	4–0 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2
Worst loss	1–2 vs Mercury Pre- North	0–9 at Columbus Force Pre- 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.19	-1.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-2.04	-0.44

Already played this season: Sun Sep 6 9–0 vs FC Storm Premier 2 (W)

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 — we 7–0, 6–1; they 4–0. Mercury Pre- North — we 1–2; they 0–3. Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 — we 5–0, 10–0; they 2–2, 4–0.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 5–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Miami Meadows.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Storm Premier 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Columbus Force Pre- 2 – FC Storm Premier 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.57 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 2.14 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

16% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.2 average finish

1st 16%
2nd 46%
3rd 39%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre- North	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.64)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
2	Indy Eleven Pre- II	3.00 (+0.50)	3rd (2.19)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

26 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Columbus Force Pre- 2 to FC Storm Premier 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.72 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 2-1-3 · GD -12	Away far trip Miami Meadows	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	5–1	2.84	2.55	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Mercury Pre- North 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +35	Away far trip Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.07	2.36	Upside
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Indy Eleven Pre- II 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +18	Home Havener Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–2	1.86	2.31	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Indy Eleven Pre- II 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.53	2.23	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre- North

+35

3.00

WWWWW

-1.98

+1.70

100%

1.3

W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Tue Sep 15	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	9–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre- II

+18

3.00

WWW

-2.54

+0.61

100%

2.4

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	8–0
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre- 2 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	7–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre- 2

+35

2.50

WLWWW

-2.04

+1.72

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Mercury Pre- North · Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-12

1.17

LDWLW

-0.44

+1.43

99%

4.0

W	Tue Oct 20	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–8
W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	4–0
D	Tue Sep 22	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–2
L	Tue Sep 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2

-38

0.17

LDLLL

+1.65

-0.37

5.4

L	Tue Oct 20	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–10
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–10
D	Tue Sep 22	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-38

0.00

LLLLL

+2.19

-2.89

5.5

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.